Tag Archives: jobless benefits

U.S. labor market regaining footing as weekly jobless claims fall sharply

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits dropped by the most in three months last week, suggesting the labor market recovery was regaining momentum after a recent slowdown, as the wave of COVID-19 infections began to subside.

The weekly unemployment claims report from the Labor Department on Thursday, the most timely data on the economy’s health, also showed the number of people on state unemployment rolls plunging to an 18-month low in late September.

Improving labor market conditions bode well for the government’s closely watched employment report for September and also provide ammunition for the Federal Reserve, which signaled last month it could begin reducing is monthly bond buying as soon as November.

“The labor market is back on track after a few weeks of rising claims threw a question mark into the markets’ understanding of just how solid the economic outlook really is,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS in New York. “The Fed has the evidence it needs to start paring back its emergency stimulus purchases when it meets next month.”

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 38,000 to a seasonally adjusted 326,000 for the week ended Oct. 2. That was the biggest drop since late June. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 348,000 claims for the latest week.

Unadjusted claims, which economists say offer a better read of the labor market, tumbled 41,431 to 258,909 last week. California led the drop in claims last week. There were also decreases in Michigan, Ohio, Washington DC and Missouri. They offset notable increases in Pennsylvania and Virginia.

Claims had increased for three straight weeks as California moved people to another program following the expiration of federal government-funded aid on Sept. 6, to allow the recipients to collect one additional week of benefits.

There had also been increases in filings related to the idling of assembly plants in some states by automakers as they managed their supply of semiconductors amid a global shortage.

A resurgence in COVID-19 infections, driven by the Delta variant, also disrupted activity in the high-contact services sector. That suggested some moderation in labor market conditions in the prior weeks, which was confirmed by a separate report on Thursday from global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showing job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers increased 14% to 17,895 in September.

Still, layoffs were down 85% compared to September 2020.

In the third quarter, employers announced 52,560 job cuts, the fewest since the second quarter of 1997 and down 23% from the July-September period.

Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher. The dollar dipped against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices fell.

SUPPLY WOES

Layoffs last month were led by companies in the healthcare/products sector, with 2,673 announced cuts. Since the Pfizer vaccine received full-FDA approval, many healthcare facilities have implemented vaccine mandates, which have led to the firing of non-compliant workers.

Ongoing strains in the supply chain saw industrial goods manufacturers laying off 2,328 workers in September, while warehousing businesses reported 1,936 job cuts. There were 1,679 job cuts in the services sector.

But the rise in layoffs was dwarfed by an explosion in planned hiring, in part as retailers gear up for the holiday season. The Challenger report showed companies announced plans to hire 939,790 workers compared to only 94,004 in August.

With companies eager to hire, more people are coming off the state unemployment rolls. The claims report showed the number of people continuing to receive benefits after an initial week of aid tumbled 97,000 to 2.714 million in the week ended Sept. 25. That was the lowest level since mid-March 2020.

The total number of people collecting unemployment checks under all programs dropped to 4.172 million during the week ended Sept. 18 from 5.027 million in the prior week. That reflected the end of extended benefits last month, which economists hope will increase the labor pool.

The pandemic forced some people to drop out of work to become caregivers. Others are reluctant to return for fear of contracting the coronavirus, while some have either retired or are seeking career changes. That has left employers desperate to fill a record 10.9 million job openings as of the end of July.

The worker shortages have impacted job growth, though there is optimism that hiring picked up in September. According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 500,000 jobs last month.

Estimates range from as high as 700,000 jobs to as low as 250,000, reflecting the mixed labor market indicators in September. A survey from the Conference Board last week showed consumers’ views of current labor market conditions softened.

While the Institute for Supply Management’s measure of manufacturing employment rebounded last month after contracting in August, its measure of services industry employment slipped.

The economy created 235,000 jobs in August, the fewest in seven months. The unemployment rate is forecast dipping to 5.1% in September from 5.2% in August.

“Going forward, the combination of easing labor supply constraints, strong labor demand and an improving COVID outlook should spur further labor market progress,” said Lydia Boussour, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics in New York.

(Reporting By Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Andrea Ricci)

Bipartisan U.S. lawmaker group to unveil $1.5 trillion COVID-19 aid bill

By David Morgan

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – A group of 50 Democratic and Republican members of Congress is due to unveil $1.5 trillion bipartisan coronavirus relief legislation on Tuesday, in an election year effort to break a month-long impasse in COVID-19 talks between the White House and top Democrats.

The Problem Solvers Caucus, which includes members of both parties in the House of Representatives, was set to outline the legislative package at an 11 a.m. (1500 GMT) press conference at the U.S. Capitol.

The group, which says it has been working to find common ground on coronavirus relief for the past six weeks, agreed on the measure just before House lawmakers returned to Washington from a summer recess on Monday.

“This is just a framework to hopefully get the negotiators back to the table,” U.S. Representative Josh Gottheimer, the group’s Democratic co-chairman, told CNBC.

The proposal includes another round of direct checks to Americans, $500 billion for state and local governments and jobless benefits, with spending lasting beyond next January’s presidential inauguration, a source familiar with the plan said.

With less than two months to go before the Nov. 3 election, there is growing anxiety among lawmakers about the inability of Congress and President Donald Trump’s White House to agree on a package to deliver relief to millions of Americans and an economy reeling from the coronavirus pandemic.

Talks between the White House, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer broke down in early August and the two sides remain nearly $900 billion apart. But Pelosi and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin in recent days have both signaled a willingness to keep talking.

White House adviser Jared Kushner on Tuesday separately told CNBC he hoped a deal could be reached but that it might not happen until after the election.

Trump on Tuesday also cited the need for more funding but sought to cast blame on the House Democratic leader, telling Fox News in an interview: “We could use additional stimulus, but Nancy Pelosi won’t approve it because she thinks it’s bad for me in the election.”

Democrats, who control the House, passed their $3.4 trillion package in mid-May. They later said they would accept $2.2 trillion in spending, while the White House signaled a willingness to accept $1.3 trillion.

Republican congressional leaders have not participated in the discussions. The Republican-controlled Senate failed to pass a $300 billion coronavirus bill that Senate Democrats called inadequate. A slimmed-down version of an earlier $1 trillion Republican measure also failed.

(Reporting by David Morgan; additional reporting by by Susan Heavey; Editing Bernadette Baum and Steve Orlofsky)

Coronavirus talks in Congress face timeline as Trump ponders his own action

By Patricia Zengerle and Susan Cornwell

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Congressional Democratic leaders and White House officials were set to resume negotiations on coronavirus relief legislation on Wednesday, with the administration officials aiming for an agreement by Friday.

After more than a week of talks and few signs of progress, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer were said to be aiming for a deal that could be passed by Congress next week.

“Obviously, we’re up against a deadline now. But as you know from experience around here, that’s about the only way,” Senator John Thune, the chamber’s No. 2 Republican, told reporters.

Indeed, negotiators have already blown past one deadline: last Friday, when enhanced unemployment payments of $600 a week expired for the tens of millions of Americans who have lost their jobs in the pandemic.

Mnuchin said late on Tuesday that the two sides were trying to reach an overall agreement by the end of this week.

But Pelosi said on Wednesday that the timeline would depend on the course of the negotiations.

“The timetable really relates to the progress we make. How big will the bill be and how long will it last? Those are the questions,” the Democratic congresswoman told MSNBC.

In the meantime, Republican President Donald Trump said he was still considering unilateral action to stimulate the economy by allowing taxpayers to defer payroll tax payments.

“Well, I may do it myself,” he said in an interview with Fox News. “I have the right to suspend it, and I may do it myself – I have the absolute right to suspend the payroll.”

An earlier Trump demand for a payroll tax cut gained no traction among lawmakers of either party in Congress.

POSTAL WOES

Trump’s newly installed Postmaster General, Louis DeJoy, was also due to provide Democrats with a briefing, amid worries about delays in Postal Service deliveries and the potential impact on the Nov. 3 elections, which could see record numbers of mail-in ballots as many voters fear casting votes in person could expose them to the coronavirus.

“We must resolve those in a way that allows mail to be delivered on time for the election and for the necessities that people need,” Schumer said on the Senate floor.

To illustrate the scale of mail-in voting expected, a Monmouth University poll found that 40% of Iowa voters are very likely to vote by mail in the general election, while another 17% are somewhat likely to do so.

Despite some progress in coronavirus legislation talks, both sides remain far apart on a range of issues.

Mnuchin warned that the Trump administration would not accept “anything close” to the $3.4 trillion in new aid that Democrats were seeking. But he offered to extend through the end of the year an expired moratorium on evictions of people unable to pay their rent.

Schumer accused Republicans of failing to grasp the severity of the pandemic, which has killed more than 157,000 people in the United States.

“There must be a relief package commensurate with the size of this historic challenge,” the New York Democrat said.

Senate Majority Mitch McConnell, the chamber’s top Republican, who has not joined the negotiations, blamed Schumer and Pelosi for the lack of a deal: “Democratic leaders have moved about one inch, one inch in eight days.”

In May, the Democratic-controlled House passed a $3 trillion aid bill that included around $1 trillion to help state and local governments that have revenue shortfalls because of the huge slowdown in economic activity related to the pandemic.

McConnell has offered a $1 trillion proposal that would significantly reduce an “enhanced” jobless benefit that expired on Friday.

Both sides say they support another round of direct payments to further help stimulate the economy and keep people afloat amid massive unemployment.

(Reporting by Patricia Zengerle, Susan Cornwell and Richard Cowan, Writing by David Morgan; Editing by Scott Malone and Jonathan Oatis)

U.S. weekly jobless claims point to strong labor market

FILE PHOTO: People wait in line to attend TechFair LA, a technology job fair, in Los Angeles, California, U.S., January 26, 2017. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/File Photo

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The number of Americans filing applications for jobless benefits fell more than expected last week, pointing to sustained labor market strength that could further ease concerns about the economy’s health.

The report from the Labor Department on Thursday followed data last week showing employers hired the most workers in 10 months in December and increased wages for their workers.

Surveys showing steep declines in consumer and manufacturing activity in December had stoked fears that the economy was rapidly losing momentum.

“There are increasing risks and caution over the economic outlook in 2019, but jobless claims say the seas are calm and it looks to be smooth sailing for the economy for now,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 17,000 to a seasonally adjusted 216,000 for the week ended Jan. 5. Data for the prior week was revised up to show 2,000 more applications received than previously reported.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims declining to 225,000 in the latest week. The Labor Department said only claims for Puerto Rico were estimated last week.

U.S. financial markets were little moved by the claims report.

Claims were boosted in the week ending Dec. 29 as workers furloughed because of a partial shutdown of the U.S. government applied for benefits. The federal government partially closed on Dec. 22 as President Donald Trump demanded that the U.S. Congress give him $5.7 billion this year to help build a wall on the U.S. border with Mexico.

The shutdown, which has affected a quarter of the government, including the Commerce Department, has left 800,000 employees furloughed or working without pay. Private contractors working for many government agencies are also without pay.

FEDERAL WORKER CLAIMS RISE

Claims by federal workers are reported separately and with a one-week lag. The number of federal employees filing for jobless benefits increased by 3,831 to 4,760 in the week ending Dec. 29. Furloughed federal government workers can submit claims for unemployment benefits, but payment would depend on whether Congress decides to pay their salaries retroactively.

The four-week moving average of initial claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, rose 2,500 to 221,750 last week.

The economy created 312,000 jobs in December. The unemployment rate rose two-tenths of a percentage point to 3.9 percent as some unemployed Americans piled into the labor market, confident of their job prospects.

While labor market strength has helped to calm fears that the economy, tighter financial market conditions and slowing global growth could make the Federal Reserve cautious about raising interest rates this year.

Minutes of the U.S. central bank’s Dec. 18-19 policy meeting published on Wednesday showed “many” officials were of the view that the Fed “could afford to be patient about further policy firming.”

The Fed has forecast two rate hikes this year. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and several policymakers have said they would be patient and flexible in policy decisions this year.

Thursday’s claims report also showed the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid fell 28,000 to 1.72 million for the week ended Dec. 29. The four-week moving average of the so-called continuing claims increased 15,250 to 1.72 million.

November’s wholesale inventories report from the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau, which was scheduled for release on Thursday, will not be published because of the government shutdown.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Paul Simao)

U.S. weekly jobless claims drop to near 49-year low

FILE PHOTO: People wait in line to attend TechFair LA, a technology job fair, in Los Angeles, California, U.S., January 26, 2017. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The number of Americans filing applications for jobless benefits tumbled to near a 49-year low last week, which could ease concerns about a slowdown in the labor market and economy.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 27,000 to a seasonally adjusted 206,000 for the week ended Dec. 8, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Last week’s decline in claims was the largest since April 2015. Claims hit 202,000 in mid-September, which was the lowest level since December 1969.

Data for the prior week were revised to show 2,000 more applications received than previously reported.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims falling to 225,000 in the latest week. Claims shot up to an eight-month high of 235,000 during the week ended Nov. 24.

The Labor Department said only claims for Virginia were estimated last week.

The four-week moving average of initial claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, fell 3,750 to 224,750 last week.

While difficulties adjusting the data around holidays likely boosted applications in prior weeks, there were concerns the labor market was losing some momentum given financial market volatility, the fading stimulus from a $1.5 trillion tax cut and the Trump administration’s protectionist trade policy.

Last week’s sharp drop in claims also suggests a slowdown in job growth in November was likely the result of worker shortages. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 155,000 jobs after surging by 237,000 in October.

With the unemployment rate near a 49-year low of 3.7 percent, Federal Reserve officials view the labor market as being at or beyond full employment.

The U.S. central bank is expected to raise interest rates at its Dec. 18-19 policy meeting. The Fed has hiked rates three times this year. Most economists expect the central bank will increase borrowing costs twice next year, although traders expect no more than one rate increase.

Thursday’s claims report also showed the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid increased 25,000 to 1.67 million for the week ended Dec. 1.

The four-week moving average of the so-called continuing claims slipped 2,500 to 1.67 million.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani Editing by Paul Simao)