Important Takeaways:
- Some see God’s divine intervention in an earthquake that struck southern Syria and Lebanon on the very day as an attack by Iran and Hezbollah against Israel was anticipated.
- Israel has been bracing for an attack by Iran and its proxy Hezbollah ever since the Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran on July 31.
- Some have felt the delay in a response may have been because the Islamic State wanted to wait for the Tisha B’Av, or the 9th of Av on the Jewish lunar calendar, which began on Monday evening and continued until nightfall on Tuesday.
- However, the Associated Press reported that a 5.5 magnitude earthquake struck the city of Hama at 11:56 p.m. local time Monday night. The official Syria state news outlet said it was a 4.8 magnitude quake. Aftershocks continued into Tuesday morning.
- “In Damascus and Beirut — the capital of neighboring Lebanon, where the earthquake was also felt — residents descended to the streets fearing a stronger quake that would collapse buildings,” according to the AP.
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Important Takeaways:
- Within the last month, nearly all major Western and international airlines have announced suspensions and cancelations of their service to both Tel Aviv and Beirut. This also as foreign nationals have scrambled to get out of both countries, given ongoing fears of the outbreak of bigger regional war involving Iran and Hezbollah attacking Israel.
- While American Airlines was among the many carriers announcing temporary pauses in service, it has just issued a surprising lengthy extension to this suspension in flights. On Friday, the Fort Worth-based company announced it doesn’t plan to resume flights to Tel Aviv until April 2025.
- This is a longer cancelation than any other airline, including in all of Europe, so far as a result of the Gaza war and related fears of regional escalation and spillover.
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Important Takeaways:
- As Iran threatens to respond to the suspected Israeli assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, the regional militias that the Islamic Republic has armed for decades could play a role in any attack.
- Iran relies on militias as an asymmetric threat to squeeze both Israel and the United States.
- Iran’s arming began in earnest in the 1980s with Shiite forces in Lebanon fighting against Israel. They became the Hezbollah militia.
- The arming expanded with the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq that toppled dictator Saddam Hussein, a longtime foe of Tehran.
- Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard is one of the most powerful armed groups in the Middle East.
- The militias in Iran’s self-described “Axis of Resistance” include: Iraqi militias, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Palestinian militant forces, Yemen’s Houthi rebels
- The Houthis follow the Shiite Zaydi faith, a branch of Shiite Islam that is almost exclusively found in Yemen. The rebels claim they’ve recruited 200,000 additional fighters since launching their attacks.
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Important Takeaways:
- Sources said Blinken indicated that while the U.S. does not know the exact time of the attacks, they could begin as early as the next 24-48 hours.
- Blinken coordinated the call with U.S. allies in an effort to put as much last-minute diplomatic pressure as possible on Iran and Hezbollah to temper any potential retaliation against Israel, according to Axios. Sources say Blinken emphasized the importance of preventing an all-out war.
- Blinken allegedly indicated that the United States is prepared for retaliation from Iran and Hezbollah in response to the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh and military commander Fuad Shukr. But, he said, it is unclear what form the relation will take.
- Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in a meeting late Sunday with heads of the military and intelligence services, said Israel is determined to stand up to Iran “on every front and in every arena — near and far.”
- “Iran and its minions are looking to surround us in a stranglehold of terrorism … Whoever seeks to harm us will pay a very heavy price,” Netanyahu said ahead of the meeting.
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Important Takeaways:
- Israel is already in a “multifront war” with Iran and its proxies, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told a Cabinet meeting Sunday, as the United States and allies prepared to defend Israel from an expected counterstrike and prevent an even more destructive regional conflict.
- Tensions have soared following nearly 10 months of war in Gaza and the killing last week of a senior Hezbollah commander in Lebanon and Hamas’ top political leader in Iran. Iran and its allies have blamed Israel and threatened retaliation. Hamas says it has begun discussions on choosing a new leader.
- Netanyahu said Israel was ready for any scenario. Jordan’s foreign minister was making a rare trip to Iran as part of diplomatic efforts — “We want the escalation to end,” Ayman Safadi said — while the Pentagon has moved significant assets to the region.
- In Israel, some prepared bomb shelters and recalled Iran’s unprecedented direct military assault in April following a suspected Israeli strike that killed two Iranian generals.
- Hezbollah says it’s aimed at relieving pressure on fellow Iran-backed ally Hamas. A growing number of countries, including the U.S., are encouraging citizens to leave Lebanon after last week’s killing of a senior commander.
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Important Takeaways:
- Hezbollah’s leader warned Thursday that the conflict with Israel has entered a “new phase,” as he addressed mourners at the funeral of a commander from the group who was killed by an Israeli airstrike this week in Beirut.
- Iran has vowed retaliation against Israel for the strike that killed Hamas’ Ismail Haniyeh on Wednesday in the Iranian capital of Tehran.
- Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said, “We … have entered a new phase that is different from the previous period.”
- “Do they expect that Hajj Ismail Haniyeh will be killed in Iran and Iran will remain silent?” he said of the Israelis.
- “The enemy and the one who is behind the enemy” — an apparent reference to Israel’s chief ally, the United States — “will have to wait for our coming response,” he said.
- In his speech, Nasrallah praised Shukur as a veteran commander and denied that Hezbollah carried out the deadly strike on the soccer field in the mainly Druze town of Majdal Shams in the Golan.
- “We have the courage to take responsibility for where we strike, even if it’s a mistake. If we made a mistake, we would admit and apologize,” he said, adding, “The enemy made itself the judge, jury, and executioner without any evidence.”
- Speaking Thursday in the Mongolian capital of Ulaaanbataar, Blinken appealed for countries to “make the right choices in the days ahead” and said a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza was the only way to begin to break the current cycle of violence and suffering. Blinken did not mention Israel, Iran or Hamas by name in his comments.
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Important Takeaways:
- Analysts agree that both strikes hit too close to home to pass without a response, and were serious security breaches for both Iran and its proxy terror group.
- Calibrating that response to restore deterrence without sparking an even more damaging escalation may be the most delicate balancing act in nearly a year of teetering on the brink of a regional war.
- Tuesday’s rare strike in Beirut’s southern suburbs killed a top Hezbollah commander who Israel says was responsible for a missile strike on a soccer field in the town of Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights, killing 12 children.
- Less than 12 hours later, the Palestinian terror group Hamas — a Hezbollah ally also backed by Iran — announced that the chief of its political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, had been killed in an Israeli airstrike in Tehran
- “In the Israeli-Hezbollah confrontation, this is a major escalation whereby Hezbollah has to respond adequately in a more or less timely fashion” to restore deterrence.
- “We are in the territory of too many ‘ifs’ to avoid a war, and this doesn’t bode well.”
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Important Takeaways:
- Hamas called the IDF retaliatory strike on Beirut, targeting Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr a dangerous escalation, as the White House said Israel has a right to defend itself against Iranian back threats.
- “Our commitment to Israel’s security is ironclad and unwavering against all Iran-backed threats, including Lebanese Hezbollah,” US National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson said.
- “Israel has a right to defend itself against the severe threats it faces. “At the same time, the United States is continuing to work on a diplomatic solution to end these terrible attacks and allow citizens on both sides to safely return to their homes,” she stated.
- The Iranian proxy group Hamas, which operates in both Lebanon and Gaza said, “We strongly condemn the brutal Zionist aggression against Lebanon and the brotherly Lebanese people.”
- “We consider it a dangerous escalation for which the Nazi-Zionist occupation bears full responsibility,” it stated.
- The attack comes as Hamas and Israel are negotiating a hostage and ceasefire deal.
- US officials had urged Israel not to strike at Beirut in retaliation for the children’s death, even though the Iranian proxy group Hezbollah is located there.
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Important Takeaways:
- As tensions escalate between Israel and Hezbollah, based in Lebanon, the U.S. Embassy in Lebanon issued a video Monday urging Americans to leave the country before a crisis begins.
- “We recommend U.S. citizens develop a crisis plan of action and leave before a crisis begins,” Rena Bitter, U.S. assistant secretary of state for the bureau of consular affairs, said in a video posted on social media. “Should commercial air not be available, individuals already in Lebanon should be prepared to shelter in place for long periods of time.”
- Bitter said anyone planning to visit Lebanon should reconsider given the “difficulties that would hinder departure should conflict increase in the region.”
- U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with Israeli President Isaac Herzog on Monday, emphasizing the “importance of preventing escalation” and discussing efforts to reach a diplomatic solution to months of conflict.
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Important Takeaways:
- Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned of a harsh response to the Hezbollah strike that killed 12 children amid calls by the international community for Israeli restrain.
- “Our response will come, and it will be hard,” Netanyahu said during a visit Monday to the Druze village of Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights that came under attack on Saturday.
- The state of Israel, he said, cannot and will not normalize this,” he stated.
- Late Sunday the security cabinet spent over three hours debating a response to the Hezbollah attack, authorizing Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to take action.
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