Extreme Drought in Kansas takes major toll on wheat crop

Revelations 13:16-18 “Also it causes all, both small and great, both rich and poor, both free and slave, to be marked on the right hand or the forehead, so that no one can buy or sell unless he has the mark, that is, the name of the beast or the number of its name. This calls for wisdom: let the one who has understanding calculate the number of the beast, for it is the number of a man, and his number is 666.”

Important Takeaways:

  • Widespread drought deals nation’s breadbasket significant blow
  • Farmers in the nation’s heartland are dealing with a severe drought that has the potential to lead to the smallest wheat crop since the 1960s, according to estimates from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
  • Through NASA modeling and measurements, an estimated two-thirds of Kansas’ wheat crop has faced extreme or exceptional drought conditions.
  • The state is the largest producer of winter wheat and, according to the USDA, produces about 332 million bushels a year.
  • Early estimates put 2023 production totals at about 191 million bushels, which is lower than the 10-year average and below the 260 million bushels harvested in 2022.
  • Kansas farmers said they’ve heard about growers losing about 90% of their crops due to the drought and said there is little time to turn the situation around.

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Intensifying drought across the mid-west is having negative effect on crops

Revelations 13:16-18 “Also it causes all, both small and great, both rich and poor, both free and slave, to be marked on the right hand or the forehead, so that no one can buy or sell unless he has the mark, that is, the name of the beast or the number of its name. This calls for wisdom: let the one who has understanding calculate the number of the beast, for it is the number of a man, and his number is 666.”

Important Takeaways:

  • Central US drought intensifies, threatening grains and soy
  • The worst U.S. Midwest drought since 2012 expanded over the past week despite mild temperatures as a lack of rain across the heart of the American farm belt threatened newly seeded corn and soybean crops, climatologists said in a weekly report.
  • Below-average rainfall and high winds also exacerbated drought conditions in much of the High Plains region from top spring wheat producer North Dakota to the largest winter wheat state Kansas, the U.S. Drought Monitor report showed.
  • Concerns about the dry start to the U.S. summer crop season and potential harvest shortfalls have sent corn and soybean prices soaring to multi-month highs, although both crops can still rebound with timely rains.
  • As of June 20, 58% of the Midwest was in moderate drought or worse, the broadest area since 2012, the Drought Monitor data showed.
  • The USDA said 64% of corn production area and 57% of soy area was affected by drought this week, up from 57% of corn and 51% of soybeans in the prior week.

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Oklahoma drought being compared to the Dust Bowl

Oklahoma Wheat Drought

Luke 21:25 ““And there will be signs in sun and moon and stars, and on the earth distress of nations in perplexity because of the roaring of the sea and the waves

Important Takeaways:

  • ‘I think we’re to the Dust Bowl.’ Oklahoma farmers say wheat crop is worst in decades
  • “We had less than half of a crop last year, and we’re probably going to have half of that this year. It’s terrible,” said 75-year-old Burlington farmer Keith Kisling. “We’re in the most severe drought I’ve ever seen.”
  • Farmers and agricultural businesses are bracing for the impact of a winter wheat harvest devastated by prolonged drought across much of the United States, including north-central and western Oklahoma. More than half of the Sooner State’s wheat crop is in poor condition, and producers warn that consumers and local economies likely will face financial impacts.

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Poor Yields after Summer Drought and Extreme Weather

Revelations 18:23 ‘For the merchants were the great men of the earth; for by thy sorceries were all nations deceived.’

Important Takeaways:

  • The summer drought’s hefty toll on American crops
  • Drought conditions and extreme weather have wreaked havoc on many row crops, fruits and vegetables, with the American Farm Bureau Federation suggesting yields could be down by as much as a third compared with last year.
  • This year’s hard red winter wheat crop was the smallest since 1963, the bank’s analysts said. In Texas, cotton farmers have walked away from nearly 70 percent of their crop because the harvest is so paltry, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
  • American corn is on track to produce its lowest yield since the drought of 2012
  • The California rice harvest is half what it would be in a normal year, an industry group said.

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Adding to the supply shortages: Kansas wheat crops are failing during drought

Rev 6:6 NAS “And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not damage the oil and the wine.”

Important Takeaways:

  • Western Kansas wheat crops are failing just when the world needs them most
  • Russia’s war in Ukraine has disrupted global food supplies, driving up demand and prices for wheat. But after months of drought, many western Kansas farmers won’t have a crop to sell.
  • Across western Kansas, many fields planted with wheat months ago now look like barren wastelands. The gaping spaces between rows of brown, shriveled plants reveal hardened dirt that’s scarred with deep cracks from baking in the sun.

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Wheat Shortage already beginning to affect regions in the Middle East

Rev 6:6 NAS “And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not damage the oil and the wine.”

Important Takeaways:

  • War in Ukraine Sparks Fears of Global Wheat Shortage
  • Wheat stored in silos near Odesa can’t make it to market because of Russia’s blockade of ports on the Black Sea.
  • In Lebanon, it’s estimated the country will be out of grain in less than two months.
  • In Egypt more than 80 percent of the 270,000,000 loaves of bread the country consumes each day are made with wheat from Russia and Ukraine. So here, people see big problems on the horizon.
  • In Cairo, people on a fixed income are already feeling the pinch of high prices.

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Expect Inflation to hit 10% analysts warn

Rev 6:6 NAS And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not damage the oil and the wine.”

Important Takeaways:

  • Russia’s Ukraine war threatens to blow US food prices sky-high
  • Inflation nearing a dangerous high, experts warn
  • It began with a rapid rise in gas prices. Now, with Russian oil banned in the United States and energy scarcity heightened globally, experts say shoppers can expect their grocery bills to rise in coming months
  • Russia and Ukraine produce 25% of the global wheat supply, according to the Observatory for Economic Complexity. While neither of these countries export wheat to the U.S. directly, their absence from the global market is expected to strain supply and push prices higher.
  • “It comes an absolutely horrible time for American consumers because we’re looking every day at inflation almost reaching 10%,” Dan Varroney

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The Mid-West Plains in Drought Conditions Adding to Inflation Woes

Rev 6:6 NAS And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not damage the oil and the wine.”

Important Takeaways:

  • Plains Drought to Curb U.S. Wheat Harvest, Adding to Global Supply Worries
  • A worsening drought in the southern U.S. Plains is threatening the region’s winter wheat crop just as the Russian invasion of Ukraine dents global supplies.
  • More than half of Kansas was classified as under severe drought or worse as of March 8, the driest conditions since 2018, according to the National Drought Mitigation Center.
  • Severe drought is also covering three-quarters of Oklahoma and more than two-thirds of Texas, both of which also are large wheat producers.
  • U.S. hard red winter wheat represents nearly half of the country’s overall wheat production and is milled mainly for bread flour. A reduced crop could further stoke food inflation that the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said was the highest-ever in February

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JP Morgan Reports Wheat and Corn Prices to Rise

Rev 6:6 NAS And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not damage the oil and the wine.”

Important Takeaways:

  • Wheat prices soar to highest since 2008 on potential Russia supply hit
  • The grain traded “limit up” during the day, meaning to the highest amount the price of a commodity is allowed to increase in a single day.
  • Russia is the largest exporter of wheat and Ukraine is among the four biggest exporters of the commodity, according to JPMorgan.
  • Of the 207 million ton international wheat trade, 17% comes from Russia and 12% comes from Ukraine, according to Bank of America.
  • “Wheat and corn are the most exposed agricultural markets to any potential escalation in tensions”

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The Breadbasket of Europe Russia/Ukraine War Escalates Cost at the Store

Rev 6:6 NAS And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not damage the oil and the wine.”

Important Takeaways:

  • Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will likely ratchet American food prices even higher, experts say
  • Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could push U.S. food prices even higher, as the region is one of the world’s largest producers of wheat and some vegetable oils. And the disruptions could drag on for months or even years, as crop production in the area could be halted and take a long time to restart.
  • This week’s events “are proof that this will be a multiyear issue,” said Michael Swanson, Wells Fargo’s chief agricultural economist. “It’s my assumption that Ukrainian crops won’t get planted, or not anywhere near what they typically plant. And the Russian crops will be planted but will be embargoed in many markets. This is not something that will be resolved in weeks or months.”
  • “There will be a disruption; there is already a blockade on Black Sea ports,” she said. “In the near term this should have an impact on European Union wheat shipments, then it will have an impact on the U.S.”
  • Ukraine is the world’s fourth-largest exporter of both corn and wheat. It is also the world’s largest exporter of sunflower seed oil, an important component of the world’s vegetable oil supply. Together, Russia and Ukraine supply 29 percent of all wheat exports and 75 percent of global exports of sunflower oil, said Kelly Goughary, senior research analyst Gro-Intelligence, an agriculture data platform.

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