Job cuts are coming and will be super brutal

Revelations 18:23:’For the merchants were the great men of the earth; for by thy sorceries were all nations deceived.’

Important Takeaways:

  • Banks Trim Pandemic-Fueled Headcount
  • The past few months have seen banks that include Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse slash more than 15,000 jobs. Industry experts said they expect other banks to make similar moves.
  • Lee Thacker, owner of financial services headhunting firm Silvermine Partners, said “The job cuts that are coming are going to be super brutal,”… “It’s a reset because they over-hired over the past two to three years.”
  • Last week also saw the news that Bank of America was freezing much of its hiring as it prepares for a possible recession.
  • PYMNTS noted late last year that several investment banks had cut staff in Europe, including Citi, Deutsche Bank, and Credit Suisse, as deal-making stalled and markets stagnated
  • The banks’ job cuts are happening as a storm of layoffs hit a number of other businesses. Google parent Alphabet announced Friday (Jan. 20) that it was cutting 12,000 jobs across the company’s product areas, functions and regions.
  • Tech companies reduced their headcounts by more than 153,000 last year, with Meta slashing 11,000 jobs and Amazon cutting 10,000.

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WSJ experts say there’s a 60 percent chance of recession as Americans shell out an additional $72 per month on groceries

Eggs Inflation

Revelations 18:23:’For the merchants were the great men of the earth; for by thy sorceries were all nations deceived.’

Important Takeaways:

  • Average American family is spending $72-a-month more on food due to inflation as experts predict a recession in 2023
  • American families continue to attempt to meet the rising cost of living as inflation continues to plague household budgets
  • The most recent CPI report showed that inflation has slowed considerably since the summer, when the figure capped out at 9.1 percent
  • Despite slowing inflation, however, a group of experts surveyed by the WSJ says there is a greater than 60 percent chance of recession in 2023
  • Moody’s Analytics showed that families are spending an estimated $72 more on food per month than they were a year ago.
  • That figure is pulled out of a report that says the typical US household is shelling out $371 on goods and services more than they were a year ago.

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Big Banks expect trouble: High inflation, High unemployment with largest economies expected to stall

Revelations 18:23:’For the merchants were the great men of the earth; for by thy sorceries were all nations deceived.’

Important Takeaways:

  • 2023 Spells Big Trouble for US Economy, Majority of Big Banks Warn: Reports
  • The Wall Street Journal predict that the United States will fall into the grips of a recession in 2023 and millions of Americans will lose their jobs
  • The institutions that predict a coming recession expect consumer spending to weaken as Americans deplete their savings and an aggressive Fed drives up borrowing costs, and as banks’ lending standards get tighter.
  • Even though inflation has eased somewhat from its June peak, it’s far from enough for the Fed to hit the brakes on interest rates, which were brought up quickly from near zero in March 2022 to the current range of between 4.24–4.5 percent.
  • Frustrated by how sticky high inflation has remained despite the rate hikes, Fed officials have pledged to keep raising rates and keep them high until inflation recedes to around the Fed’s 2 percent target
  • Fed officials said they expect the terminal Fed Funds rate—meaning the highest level before it hits a ceiling and later falls—to come in at 5.1 percent.
  • Rates that high will push unemployment up from the current 3.7 percent to 4.6 percent in 2023 and stay at that level in 2024, according to the Fed.
  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF)… expects more economic pain. “More than a third of the global economy will contract this year or next, while the three largest economies—the United States, the European Union, and China—will continue to stall,”
  • “In short, the worst is yet to come, and for many people 2023 will feel like a recession.”

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Experts warn: Retail Apocalypse not over

Economic Collapse

Revelations 18:23:’For the merchants were the great men of the earth; for by thy sorceries were all nations deceived.’

Important Takeaways:

  • 5 Reasons We Should Expect an Economic Recession in 2023 (Five Trends economists are pointing to a global recession in 2023)
    • Soaring Energy Costs
    • Higher Interest Rates
    • Rising Food Prices
    • Rising Unemployment
    • Global Uncertainty and Instability
      • Economic or commodity shock
      • Geopolitical instability
      • Energy instability

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Feds marching Interests Rates higher in a risk rewards market as Dow drops 100 points

Revelations 18:23:’For the merchants were the great men of the earth; for by thy sorceries were all nations deceived.’

Important Takeaways:

  • Dow drops 100 points after the Fed dashes hopes for a pivot to softer tightening stance
  • Markets will likely continue to seesaw until it is clear inflation has cooled off and that the Fed has stopped marching rates higher, but traders split over where interest rates are headed. Any data that shows the U.S. economy isn’t slowing as the central bank tightens policy will likely weigh on stocks.
  • “In our view, the risk-reward for markets over the next three to six months is unfavorable, and today’s Fed statement supports that view”

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Costs at the store are rising, and companies are acting aggressively in keeping them high

Revelations 18:23:’For the merchants were the great men of the earth; for by thy sorceries were all nations deceived.’

Important Takeaways:

  • Food Prices Soar, and So Do Companies’ Profits
  • A year ago, a bag of potato chips at the grocery store cost an average of $5.05. These days, that bag costs $6.05. A dozen eggs that could have been picked up for $1.83 now average $2.90. A two-liter bottle of soda that cost $1.78 will now set you back $2.17.
  • Over the last year, the price of food eaten at home has soared 13 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, with some items spiking even higher. Cereals and bakery goods are up 16.2 percent from a year ago, closely followed by dairy, which has risen 15.9 percent.
  • The cost of eating at restaurants has risen 8.5 percent over the same period.
  • But amid growing concerns that the economy could be headed for a recession, some food companies and restaurants are continuing to raise prices even if their own inflation-driven costs have been covered. Critics say the moves are all about increasing profits, not covering expenses.

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As The Federal Reserve battles inflation CEO of JP Morgan warns the US is months away from a recession

Revelations 18:23:’For the merchants were the great men of the earth; for by thy sorceries were all nations deceived.’

Important Takeaways:

  • JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warns the US is just MONTHS away from a recession as the Fed battles to fight rising inflation – and is more likely to keep raising borrowing costs
  • JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon predicted that the US will fall into a recession in the coming months as the Federal Reserve tries to combat rampant inflation
  • Although inflation has fallen to 8.3 percent as of August, it remains stubbornly high, with September’s report likely to influence the Fed’s decision
  • The central bank has been aggressively increasing interest rates to quell inflation, with rates expected to end at 4.4 percent this year
  • More aggressive rate hikes are also expected due to strong job growth and falling unemployment rates, as well as uncertainty in Ukraine

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Chief Equity Strategist warns of a Recession worse than ‘normal’

Revelations 18:23 ‘For the merchants were the great men of the earth; for by thy sorceries were all nations deceived.’

Important Takeaways:

  • Morgan Stanley Warns of Something Worse Than a ‘Normal Recession’
  • Morgan Stanley’s Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Michael Wilson said that he’s convinced a corporate earnings recession is coming—and that it could be worse than a “normal” recession.
  • Businesses reluctant to cut staff in the face of deteriorating economic conditions and as demand falls would put more pressure on profit margins, he warned. This could lead to a situation where unemployment doesn’t move up meaningfully but corporate earnings plunge.
  • Separately, in an analytical note cited by Bloomberg, Wilson and his team of strategists said the soaring dollar was creating an “untenable situation” for stocks and this, combined with central banks tightening policy “at a historically hawkish pace,” means that odds are growing for “something to break.”

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Leading Economic Indicators expect Recession by year’s end

Revelations 18:23 ‘For the merchants were the great men of the earth; for by thy sorceries were all nations deceived.’

Important Takeaways:

  • U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Point to Recession Around Year’s End
  • “The US LEI declined for a fourth consecutive month suggesting economic growth is likely to slow further in the near-term as recession risks grow,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board.
  • “Consumer pessimism about future business conditions, moderating labor market conditions, falling stock prices, and weaker manufacturing new orders drove the LEI’s decline in June. The coincident economic index which rose in June suggests the economy grew through the second quarter. However, the forward-looking LEI points to a US economic downturn ahead.”
  • A US recession around the end of this year and early next is now likely. Accordingly, we’ve downgraded our forecast of 2022 annual Real GDP growth to 1.7 percent year-over-year

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Majority of Americans see Recession looming ahead

Rev 6:6 NAS “And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not damage the oil and the wine.”

Important Takeaways:

  • 70% of Americans think a recession is coming: Here’s what they are doing to prepare
  • A recession is defined as a significant economic decline that lasts more than a few months.
  • Most Americans — 70% — already believe an economic downturn is on its way, according to a new survey from MagnifyMoney.
  • High inflation is one of the biggest risk factors that make people think an economic decline is coming, along with high housing and rent prices and rising interest rates.
  • In order to prepare for a downturn, many are focused on keeping their spending in line — 62% of respondents said they are cutting back on spending, while 39% are sticking to a budget.
  • One in 4 respondents in the MagnifyMoney survey reported paying down debt as a way to get their finances ready for an economic downturn.

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