Tag Archives: Global Stock Market

Dramatic stock market rally runs out of steam

A screen displays the Dow Jones Industrial Average after the close of trading on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., December 26, 2018. REUTERS/Jeenah Moon

By Trevor Hunnicutt

(Reuters) – A dramatic global stock rally faded on Thursday after a fall in Chinese industrial profits offered a reminder of the pressures on the world economy.

Still, an index of world stocks stayed off near two-year lows hit earlier this week before Wednesday’s 1,000 point-plus surge on the U.S. Dow Jones index, which was attributed to the strongest holiday sales in years.

“Yesterday was a blowout day for U.S. equity markets which triggered optimism that this could be a key reversal day but the upward momentum has not really followed through,” said Lee Hardman, an analyst at MUFG in London.

“One reason is that maybe the sharp move higher was driven by year-end rebalancing, which exaggerated the scale of the rebound, and now we have reverted to the trend which has been in place most of this month.”

That trend is toward weaker stocks, U.S. dollar and oil prices along with stronger demand for safe-haven government bonds, gold and Japanese yen.

MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe shed 0.95 percent and U.S. crude fell 2.01 percent to $45.29 per barrel after each staged big rallies the day prior. [O/R]

Markets in mainland China, as well as Hong Kong, closed weaker after data showed earnings at China’s industrial firms dropped in November for the first time in nearly three years.

A Reuters report added to the gloom around the world’s second-biggest economy, saying the White House was considering barring U.S. firms from buying telecoms equipment from China’s Huawei and ZTE.

That and an ongoing partial U.S. government shutdown overshadowed positive noises from the U.S. government on trade talks with Beijing, its efforts to temper the White House’s recent broadsides against the Federal Reserve and a report showing the number of Americans filing applications for jobless benefits fell marginally last week in a sign of labor market strength.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 394.04 points, or 1.72 percent, to 22,484.41, the S&P 500 lost 42.07 points, or 1.70 percent, to 2,425.63 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 134.06 points, or 2.05 percent, to 6,420.29. [.N]

“So far, we don’t see a shift in fundamentals. Trade tensions between the U.S. and China remain the biggest unknown factor for 2019,” said Hussein Sayed, a strategist at online brokerage FXTM.

There were also renewed concerns in Italy, where troubled lender Banca Carige was denied a cash call by its largest shareholder, pushing its shares down 12.5 percent.

The concerns over a faltering global economy and signs of an oil glut pressured crude prices a day after their 8 percent rally. U.S. Treasury prices also reversed direction after falling sharply on Wednesday, with the 10-year note last rising 15/32 in price to yield 2.7452 percent. [US/]

Another safe-haven, gold, was up 0.6 percent to $1,274.52 an ounce, remaining just below a six-month peak hit earlier this week. [GOL/]

Investors also bought yen, strengthening that currency 0.56 percent against the greenback at 110.74 per dollar. Against a basket of trading partners’ currencies, the dollar was down 0.35 percent. [FRX/]

“We have started to see the yen regain its place as the safe haven of choice,” MUFG’s Hardman said.

(Additional reporting by Abhinav Ramnarayan and Sujata Rao in London; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

Dollar steadies after stumble, Brexit ruling saps sterling

woman walks past electronic board with stock market numbers on it

By Marc Jones

LONDON (Reuters) – The dollar and world stocks tip-toed higher on Tuesday, as signs of a revival of worldwide economic activity helped ease some of the caution triggered in recent days by U.S. President Donald Trump’s focus on protectionism over fiscal stimulus.

Talk of trade wars rumbled in the background but was offset as Japanese manufacturing showed the fastest expansion in almost three years and a 5-1/2 year peak in French business activity provided the latest proof of a nascent euro zone recovery.

European stocks made modest gains as the data helped bolster a 2-1/2 year high in commodity stocks and as merger talk swirling around two of Italy’s big insurers fueled a 1 percent jump in shares in Milan.

There was also the expected confirmation that Britain’s parliament will have to approve the start of the Brexit process, though sterling dropped on news that assent will not be needed from pro-EU Scotland or Northern Ireland.

It was largely fine-tuning however, with both the pound and the euro, as well as the Japanese yen already pushed back by the dollar as its index clawed its way back above the 100 point threshold breach on Monday.

“Most of the PMIs around the world have been quite strong so there is no bad news here, but the protectionism above stimulus story (from Trump) has given the dollar bulls reason for pause,” said Saxo bank’s head of FX strategy John Hardy.

“The dollar rally needs to find some support pretty soon otherwise we are facing a potentially serious correction.”

U.S. futures also pointed to another flat start for Wall Street’s S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial and Nasdaq ahead of U.S. manufacturing data and what should be more activity in Washington from Trump’s new administration.

Sentiment had taken a knock on Monday when U.S. Treasury Secretary nominee Steven Mnuchin told senators that he would work to combat currency manipulation but would not give a clear answer on whether he thought China was manipulating its yuan.

In written answers to a Senate Finance Committee, Mnuchin also reportedly said an excessively strong dollar could be negative in the short term.

The dollar duly skidded as far as 112.52 yen in its biggest fall since July though it was back up at 113.40 yen by 1300 GMT. It had also hopped up to $1.0745 to the euro and almost a full cent to $1.2440 per pound.

SCEPTICISM GROWS

While Trump promised huge cuts in taxes and regulations on Monday, he also formally withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal and talked of border tariffs.

“It’s interesting that markets did not respond positively to a reaffirmation of lower taxes and looser regulation, reinforcing the impression that all the good news is discounted for now,” wrote analysts at ANZ in a note.

“As week one in office gets underway, there is a growing sense of scepticism, not helped by the tone of Friday’s inaugural address and subsequent spat with the media.”

Doubts about exactly how much fiscal stimulus might be forthcoming had helped Treasuries rally. Yields on 10-year notes steadied at 2.42 percent in European trading, having enjoyed the steepest single-day drop since Jan. 5 on Monday.

Two-year yields were around 1.16 percent, narrowing the dollar’s premium over the euro to 183 basis points from a recent top of 207 basis points.

Europe’s moves included the second dip in a row for Italian yields as its highest court began deliberations on the legality of the country’s latest electoral law with the decision likely to influence the timing of elections there.

An unambiguous ruling offering a simple solution to Italy’s electoral tangle could open the way for an early ballot by June. A more nuanced, convoluted reading would almost certainly leave parliament in place until the legislature ends in early 2018.

Spain and France clocked up impressive demand of almost 50 billion euros between them in new 10- and 22-year bond sales.

The upbeat global data boosted industrial metals including copper and iron ore, while gold was near two-month high at $1,212 an ounce.

Oil prices edged up too as signs that OPEC and non-OPEC producers were on track to meet output reduction goals largely overshadowed a strong recovery in U.S. drilling.

U.S. crude futures added 45 cents to $53.19, while Brent crude climbed 42 cents to $55.65 a barrel. [O/R]

(Additional reporting by Wayne Cole in Sydney; Editing by Andrew Heavens)

Dow closing in on 20,000; Nasdaq hits record high

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S.,

By Tanya Agrawal

(Reuters) – The Dow and the Nasdaq hit record highs on Tuesday, with the blue-chip index just 13 points shy of the 20,000 mark, a level it has never scaled.

Goldman Sachs, which was up about 1 percent, gave the biggest boost to the Dow.

U.S. stocks have been on a tear since the Nov. 8 presidential election, with the Dow up 9 percent and S&P more than 6 percent on bets that President-elect Donald Trump’s plans for deregulation and infrastructure spending will boost the economy.

“It’s just the momentum since the election,” said Jeff Zipper, managing director for investments at Private Client Reserve at U.S. Bank in Palm Beach, Florida.

“The market is focused on the Trump agenda, which is tax cuts, infrastructure spending and deregulation. There’s not a lot of selling going on.”

However, trading volumes were muted as the last full trading week before the holiday season gets underway where movements may be pronounced.

There are also concerns that the post-election rally may have gone too far too soon.

“I think we’re a little bit concerned that market trends may be extended a little bit and market prices need to convert to fair value, and it’s not unusual to see a pullback after such a move,” said Zipper.

The S&P 500 is trading at 17.9 times forward 12-month earnings, above the 10-year median of 14.7 times, according to StarMine data.

At 11:08 a.m. ET (1608 GMT) the Dow Jones industrial average was up 83.92 points, or 0.42 percent, at 19,966.98.

The S&P 500 was up 8.69 points, or 0.38 percent, at 2,271.22. The index came within 5 points of its record high.

The Nasdaq Composite was up 25.67 points, or 0.47 percent, at 5,483.11.

Eight of the 11 major S&P sectors were higher, with the telecommunications index’s 0.99 percent rise leading the gainers.

The financial index was also up 0.93 percent. The index has risen 18.5 percent since the election, buoyed by Trump’s deregulation plans and the prospect of higher interest rates.

Brent oil prices rose by $1 to a one-week high on forecasts of a steep draw in U.S. crude stocks that could indicate global oversupply is starting to shrink.

The dollar climbed to a 14-year high after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s comments about the labor market reinforced the notion of a faster pace of U.S. interest rate hikes next year than had been expected.

General Mills  fell 3.3 percent to $61.00 after the Cheerios cereal-maker’s quarterly results missed expectations.

Nvidia <NVDA.O> was up 3.9 percent at $105.59 after brokerages Goldman Sachs and Mizuho raised their price targets on the chipmaker’s stock. The stock was among the big Nasdaq boosters.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by 1,914 to 901. On the Nasdaq, 1,819 issues rose and 858 fell.

The S&P 500 index showed 29 new 52-week highs and no new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 164 new highs and 20 new lows.

(Reporting by Tanya Agrawal in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D’Silva and Saumyadeb Chakrabarty)

Global stocks outlook dims with risk aversion on the rise again: Reuters poll

New York Stock Exchange

By Ross Finley and Rahul Karunakar

LONDON/BENGALURU (Reuters) – Optimism about stock market performance this year has wilted, with investors fretting about the global economy and unexpected shocks likely to condemn most key indices to a weaker performance than thought just a few months ago.

The latest Reuters poll of over 250 analysts, fund managers and brokers worldwide taken June 27-July 11 also showed an intensifying pull between stretched share prices – with Wall Street at a record high – and bond markets, with most government bond yields at record lows and vast swathes of them negative.

Strategists at Citi have noted that the gap between the global government bond benchmark yield, just 0.5 percent, and the dividend yield on global equities of about 2.7 percent, is the widest in 60 years, and on that basis, stocks look attractive.

Ten of the indexes polled are expected to be lower by the end of the year when just three months ago the consensus view among forecasters was that they would be up, in some cases significantly. [Graphic: http://tmsnrt.rs/29t4c95]

But the poll results do not provide a definitive picture on where forecasters are recommending investors put their money, although hopes remain high once again that next year will be better, particularly for struggling emerging markets.

The Bank of England is set to reverse course in response to Britain’s shock vote on June 23 to leave the European Union, with rate cuts and renewed government bond purchases nearly certain in an attempt to limit the damage. [BOE/INT]

The trouble is, even though the vast majority polled don’t expect any financial crisis from Brexit, that shock has increased risk aversion, as well as the risk a likely British recession may have ripple effects well beyond its borders.

Expectations for an interest rate rise in the United States have also faded despite a surprisingly strong jobs report last week, triggering a rally in stocks and U.S. Treasuries.

So while in past years the prospect of more central bank cash might have lit a fire under the stock market, there is a clear sense now of pessimism in the latest results about the outlook for European shares, as well as Britain’s FTSE 100. [EPOLL/FRDE] [EPOLL/GB]

“The Brexit vote has damaged the outlook for the global economy and EPS (earnings per share). This is clearly unhelpful for global equities. It also drove global bond yields down to unprecedented levels, which has increased the relative income attractions of equities,” wrote Citi strategists in a note.

“These two opposing forces are likely to keep share prices trapped in the current trading range. While Citi strategists collectively forecast a 7 percent rise in global equities by mid-2017, investors could probably generate a better return if they wait for the next dip.”

Even on Wall Street, where stocks had their worst start to the year ever only to rally back to a record high, in large part on optimism about the economy, many are now cautious, especially ahead of a presidential election in November. [EPOLL/US]

“It’s Brexit one day, election issues the next. We’ve been telling clients to sort of buckle up,” said Jeff Mortimer, director of investment strategy for BNY Mellon Wealth Management.

However, with increasing central bank ownership of a government bond market limited in size by fiscal restraint, stock and bond prices are likely to continue rising, simply because the money that’s been created has to go somewhere.

The European Central Bank also has both feet on the accelerator, having launched its latest aggressive expansion to its stimulus well before the Brexit vote. Now many are speculating it may have to consider doing even more to make sure the euro zone economy doesn’t veer off track as a result.

Perhaps unexpectedly, the most optimistic outlook appears to be for Japan, where stocks have been beaten down by a soaring yen and a moribund economy. [EPOLL/JP]

In addition to a much lengthier and more aggressive central bank stimulus program than in Europe, more fiscal stimulus is in the pipeline there after elections at the weekend where Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was victorious.

Indian shares are also expected to perform well on relative stability compared with other Asian economies, although forecasts are markedly less optimistic for the remainder of the year than those taken three months ago. [EPOLL/IN]

For Asia more widely, as well as Latin America, forecasters were less upbeat, looking past the U.S. presidential election and potential near-term trouble as a result of Brexit to peg 2017 for a rebound. [EPOLL/ASIA] [EPOLL/BR]

“There are likely to be more periodic sell-offs in risky assets in the months ahead, but we do not expect these to prevent EM (emerging market) stocks from performing reasonably well,” wrote David Rees, senior markets economist at Capital Economics.

“If anything, the vote for ‘Brexit’ appears likely to ensure that global monetary conditions remain looser for longer,” he wrote. “This, along with relatively low valuations, will support EM equities in the next 18 months.”

(Poll data: <EQUITYPOLL1>)

(Other stories from the Reuters global stock markets poll:)

(Additional reporting and polling from reporters in Seoul, Shanghai, Sydney, Tokyo, London, Frankfurt, Milan, Moscow, Johannesburg, New York, Brasilia, Sao Paulo, Toronto and Bengaluru; Editing by Adrian Croft)