OECD says inflation is main risk to economic outlook

PARIS (Reuters) – The main risk to an otherwise upbeat global economic outlook is that the current inflation spike proves longer and rises further than currently expected, the OECD said on Wednesday.

Global growth is set to hit 5.6% this year before moderating to 4.5% in 2022 and 3.2% in 2023, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said in its latest economic outlook.

That was little changed from a previous forecast of 5.7% for 2021, while the forecast for 2022 was unchanged. The OECD did not produce estimates for 2023 until now.

With the global economy rebounding strongly, companies are struggling to meet a post-pandemic snap-back in customer demand, causing inflation to shoot up worldwide as bottlenecks have emerged in global supply chains.

Like most policymakers, the OECD said that the spike was expected to be transitory and fade as demand and production returned to normal.

“The main risk, however, is that inflation continues to surprise on the upside, forcing the major central banks to tighten monetary policy earlier and to a greater extent than projected,” the OECD said.

Provided that that risk did not materialize, inflation in the OECD as a whole was likely close to peaking at nearly 5% and would gradually pull back to about 3% by 2023, the Paris-based organization said.

Against that backdrop, the best thing central banks can do for now is wait for supply tensions to ease and signal they will act if necessary, the OECD said.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that the U.S. central bank should consider winding down of its large-scale bond purchases faster amid a strong economy and expectations that a surge in inflation will persist into the middle of next year.

In the United States, the OECD forecast the world’s biggest economy would grow 5.6% this year, 3.7% in 2022 and 2.4% in 2023, down from previous projections of 6.0% in 2021 and 3.9% in 2022.

The outlook for China was also less optimistic, with growth forecast at 8.1% in 2021 and 5.1% in both 2022 and 2023 whereas previously the OECD had expected 8.5% in 2021 and 5.8% in 2022.

However, the outlook was slightly more upbeat for the euro zone than previously expected with growth expected at 5.2% in 2021, 4.3% in 2022 and 2.5% in 2023 compared with previous forecasts of 5.3% in 2021 and 4.6% 2022.

(Reporting by Leigh Thomas, Editing by William Maclean)

Global economic outlook ‘somewhat less dire’ than expected: IMF

By Andrea Shalal

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The global economic outlook is not quite as dark as expected even just three months ago, a top International Monetary Fund official said on Thursday, citing better-than-anticipated economic data from China and other advanced economies.

However, IMF spokesman Gerry Rice told reporters the overall global outlook remained challenging as a result of the coronavirus pandemic and its impact on many economic sectors.

The situation remained “precarious” in many developing countries and emerging markets other than China, he said, noting that the IMF was also concerned about rising debt levels.

The IMF is due to release its latest World Economic Outlook on Oct. 13. In June, it slashed its 2020 global output forecasts further, forecasting the global economy would shrink by 4.9%, compared with a 3.0% contraction predicted in April.

Rice gave no fresh numbers, but said recent data from China and other advanced economies was better than expected.

“Recent incoming data suggests that the outlook may be somewhat less dire than at the time of the WEO update on June 24, with parts of the global economy beginning to turn the corner,” he told a regular briefing.

There were also signs that global trade was slowly beginning to recover after widespread lockdowns aimed at containing the spread of the virus, Rice said.

“But I would emphasize that we are not out of the woods, and the outlook remains very challenging, especially for many emerging markets and developing countries, other than China,” he said, noting that many of those countries faced continued weakness in domestic demand, lower export demand, shrinking remittances and declines in tourism.

“Taken together, we are very concerned that this crisis will reverse the gains in poverty reduction that have been made in recent years, and roll back progress that has been made toward the Sustainable Development Goals,” he said, referring to ambitious goals set out by the United Nations five years ago to end poverty and inequality.

(Reporting by Andrea Shalal in Washington; Editing by Matthew Lewis)