Tag Archives: Inflation

Inflation Would Rise If War Breaks Out

Rev 6:6 NAS And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not damage the oil and the wine.”

Important Takeaways:

  • Ukraine-Russia crisis could push inflation to 10% if conflict escalates
  • Escalating Russia-Ukraine crisis could push oil prices to $120 a barrel
  • Russia is the world’s second-largest producer of both oil and natural gas
  • Germany already halted the certification of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia, while the U.S. and the European Union have floated potential sanctions against Moscow
  • American and European officials fear that Russia may retaliate against the sanctions by cutting off the supply of oil and natural gas that flows from Moscow to Europe, sending prices spiraling higher.

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A Multitrillion dollar federal spending bill that cost zero dollars?

Rev 6:6 NAS And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not damage the oil and the wine.”

Important Takeaways:

  • How Magical Thinking Led America To $30 Trillion In Debt
  • In the Wizarding World of Washington, you can now say a multitrillion dollar federal spending bill “costs zero dollars.”
    • President Biden tweeted https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1441924106765602819
    • My Build Back Better Agenda costs zero dollars.
    • Instead of wasting money on tax breaks, loopholes, and tax evasion for big corporations and the wealthy, we can make a once-in-a-generation investment in working America.
    • And it adds zero dollars to the national debt.
  • Unfortunately, Americans are now paying a heavy price for this magical thinking. Inflation—spurred at least in part by record government spending and inaction on other issues—is running at its highest rate since 1982. The prices for meat and eggs are up 12.2% since last year. Furniture and bedding is up 17% and used cars and trucks are up 40.5%.
  • Meanwhile, the Treasury Department recently reported America’s total national debt is now over $30 trillion—the highest ever. To put this in context: If you stacked $30 trillion of $100 bills you could almost reach the weather satellites orbiting the earth at over 20,000 miles above us.

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Inflation in the last year has us paying more for everything

Rev 6:6 NAS And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not damage the oil and the wine.”

Important Takeaways:

  • Price of Unleaded Gas Up 40.8% Under Biden; Used Cars Up 40.5%; Beef Up 16.0%
  • Between January 2021 and January 2022–President Joe Biden’s first year in office–the price of unleaded gasoline increased 40.8 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • The price beef and veal products increased 16.0 percent, according to BLS. That included a 13.0 percent increase in the price of uncooked ground beef; a 17.1 percent increase in the price of uncooked beef steaks; and a 19.2 percent increase in the price of uncooked beef roasts.
  • The price of pork increased 14.1 percent.
  • The price of chicken increased 10.3 percent.

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Oil is $100 per barrel. J.P. Morgan warns a run up to $150 could stall world economy

Rev 6:6 NAS And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not damage the oil and the wine.”

Important Takeaways:

  • $100 Oil Threatens to Compound World Economy’s Inflation Shock
  • Oil’s surge toward $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014 is threatening to deal a double-blow to the world economy by further denting growth prospects and driving up inflation.
  • More broadly, JPMorgan Chase & Co. warns a run-up to $150 a barrel would almost stall the global expansion and send inflation spiraling to over 7%, more than three times the rate targeted by most monetary policy makers.
  • China, the world’s biggest oil importer and goods exporter, has so far enjoyed benign inflation. But it’s economy remains vulnerable as producers are already juggling high input costs and concerns over energy shortages.

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Rise in Inflation now 7.5%

Rev 6:6 NAS And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not damage the oil and the wine.”

Important Takeaways:

  • Inflation surges 7.5% on an annual basis, even more than expected and highest since 1982
  • The consumer price index for all items rose 0.6% in January, driving up annual inflation by 7.5%.
  • That marked the biggest gain since February 1982 and was even higher than the Wall Street estimate.
  • Real earnings for workers increased just 0.1% on the month when accounting for inflation.
  • Weekly jobless claims declined to 223,000, below the 230,000 estimate.
  • On a percentage basis, fuel oil rose the most in January, surging 9.5% as part of a 46.5% year-over-year increase. Energy costs overall were up 0.9% for the month and 27% on the year.
  • Vehicle costs, which have been one of the biggest inflation contributors since they began surging higher in the spring of 2021, were flat for new models and up 1.5% for used cars and trucks in January. The two categories have posted respective increases of 12.2% and 40.5% over the past 12 months.
  • Shelter costs, which make up about one-third of the total CPI number, increased 0.3% on the month, which is the smallest gain since August 2021 and slightly below December’s rise. Still, the category is up 4.4% over the past year and could keep inflation readings elevated in the future.
  • Food costs jumped 0.9% for the month and are up 7% over the past year.

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“Inflation” – It looks like it’s going to get worse despite jobs report

Revelation 6:6 ESV And I heard what seemed to be a voice in the midst of the four living creatures, saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius, and do not harm the oil and wine!”

Important Takeaways:

  • Gas, food prices surging amid inflation tantrum: Can wages keep up?
  • Economists warn inflation getting worse despite ‘positive’ jobs report
  • Gas prices being such a public price have outsized their share of our budgets, what we spend,” Goolsbee told Fox News’ Bill Hemmer, “they have an outsized impact on consumer confidence.”
  • “In fact, it looks like it’s getting worse,” Moore added. “I mean, oil hit $90 a barrel. That’s the equivalent of paying about $4 to $4.50 a gallon.”

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More households having to cut back on basic items as food costs rise

Rev 6:6 NAS And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not damage the oil and the wine.”

Important Takeaways:

  • ‘Farms Are Failing’ as Fertilizer Prices Drive Up Cost of Food
  • Farmers in the developing world say they are curtailing production, which means global hunger could worsen
  • That means grocery bills could go up even more in 2022, following a year in which global food prices rose to decade highs. An uptick would exacerbate hunger—already acute in some parts of the world because of pandemic-linked job losses—and thwart efforts by politicians and central bankers to subdue inflation.
  • As the pandemic enters year three, more households are having to cut down on the quantity and quality of food they consume, the World Bank said in a note last month, noting that high fertilizer prices were adding to costs.
  • Around 2.4 billion people lacked access to adequate food in 2020, up 320 million from the year before, it said.
  • Inflation rose in about 80% of emerging-market economies last year, with roughly a third seeing double-digit food inflation, according to the World Bank.

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Breaking records Inflation highest since 1982

Rev 6:6 NAS And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not damage the oil and the wine.”

Important Takeaways:

  • US inflation soared 7% in past year, the most since 1982
  • Ayers and other economists say prices may cool off some as snags in the supply chain ease, but inflation will remain elevated throughout 2022
  • Rising prices have wiped out the healthy pay increases that many Americans have been receiving, making it harder for households, especially lower-income families, to afford basic expenses
  • Used car prices have soared more than 37% over the past year
  • Clothing costs rose 1.7% just in December, its second month of sharp increases, and are up 5.8% from a year ago.
  • Gas 50% higher than a year ago.
  • Many restaurants have been passing along higher labor and food costs onto their customers

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Inflation expected to rise in January on most basic items

Rev 6:6 NAS And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not damage the oil and the wine.”

Important Takeaways:

  • Food prices are reportedly expected to rise again in January
  • A soaring inflation rate of 6.8% as of November — the highest rate of increase in 39 years — shows no signs of slowing down, with major food manufacturers preparing to raise their prices once again, according to the Wall Street Journal.
  • Persistent supply-chain disruptions and increasing labor costs are a major factor in the increases.
  • Kraft Heinz — which makes Oscar Mayer lunch meats, Kraft Macaroni & Cheese and Jell-O pudding — told retailers it is planning to raise prices on some items by as much as 20%
  • Mondelez International, which makes snacks including Oreo cookies and Ritz crackers, will increase prices by 6% to 7% in January,
  • Other food manufacturers including Campbell Soup and General Mills, maker of Cheerios, have also warned that they will be raising prices on their goods in January but have not disclosed what the price hikes will be.

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U.S. consumers see near-term inflation rising at twice pace of wage gains, survey shows

By Jonnelle Marte

(Reuters) – U.S. consumers’ short-term inflation expectations pushed higher in November and expectations for future earnings growth dropped, suggesting they expect price increases to outpace wage gains at an even faster rate in the near term, according to a survey released on Monday by the New York Federal Reserve.

Prices for food and other goods are rising at the fastest pace since 1982, according to data released by the Labor Department last week. That higher inflation is cementing expectations the Fed will raise interest rates next year.

The price increases are also eroding wage gains, and the survey suggests consumers expect that situation to worsen in the near term. While near-term inflation expectations rose, year-ahead earnings expectations declined in November.

Consumers said they expect inflation to reach a median of 6.0% in one year, up from an expectation of 5.7% in October. Expectations for year-ahead earnings growth dropped to 2.8% in November from 3.0% in the previous month.

That would leave inflation growing 3.2 percentage points faster than earnings in one year, the widest gap since the survey launched in 2013.

Median expectations for what inflation could be in three years, however, dropped to 4.0% from 4.2%, the first decline since June and only the second drop since October 2020. And uncertainty over what future inflation could look like also rose to new highs for the survey.

Expectations for future home price growth declined slightly but consumers are still expecting more robust growth than they did before the coronavirus pandemic. Consumers said they expect home prices to rise by a median of 5% in one year, down from 5.6% in October but well above the 3.1% expected in February 2020.

The monthly survey of consumer expectations is based on a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 households.

(Reporting by Jonnelle Marte; Editing by Paul Simao)