Tag Archives: COVID-19

Latest on the spread of the coronavirus around the world

(Reuters) – Coronavirus cases across the globe jumped on Thursday as G20 leaders said they were committed to presenting a united front against the pandemic, the International Labour Organization warned of far more than 25 million job losses, and the U.S. Senate unanimously backed a $2-trillion aid package.

DEATHS, INFECTIONS

** Almost 489,000 people have been infected globally and over 22,000 have died, according to a Reuters tally.

** For an interactive graphic tracking the global spread, open https://tmsnrt.rs/3aIRuz7 in an external browser.

EUROPE

** The number of cases in Italy’s northern region of Lombardy increased by some 2,500, a steeper increase than in previous days.

** Spain extended its lockdown to at least April 12.

** Switzerland’s infections topped 10,000 as the government pumped money into the economy and army medical units helped hospitals handle the spreading epidemic.

** President Vladimir Putin said he hoped Russia would defeat the virus in 2-3 months, as authorities suspended international flights, ordered most shops in the capital to shut and halted some church services.

** In Lisbon, a “drive-thru” clinic is performing five-minute swab tests through car windows on people with symptoms, as Portuguese authorities ramp up testing facilities.

** Britain has placed an emergency order of 10,000 ventilators from Dyson.

** Slovakia aims to sharply increase daily testing in the next few weeks.

AMERICAS

** The U.S. death toll topped 1,000 as government data showed a record number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits and hospitals struggled to treat a surge of patients.

** Americans should receive cash payments within three weeks, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said.

** New York, experiencing more deaths and infections than any other U.S. state, is showing tentative signs of slowing the spread of the virus, while New Orleans is on track to become the country’s next epicentre.

** The U.S. ambassador to London has blamed China for endangering the world by suppressing information about the outbreak.

** Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro faced a political backlash for calling the coronavirus lockdown a crime.

ASIA AND THE PACIFIC** Japan banned entry from 21 European countries and Iran, and set up a new crisis task force.

** China ordered airlines to sharply cut the number of flights in and out of the country as Beijing worries that travellers from overseas could reignite the outbreak.

** Three more people died overnight in India as the government sought to improve basic services to 1.3 billion people locked indoors.

** South Korea warned that it will deport foreigners while its citizens could face jail if they violate self-quarantine rules after a surge in imported cases.

** Australia entered 4,000 healthcare workers into a trial to see if a century-old vaccine for tuberculosis can fight off the new coronavirus.

** New Zealand started a one-month compulsory lockdown, with warnings from authorities to stay at home or face big fines and even jail.

** Armenia and Kazakhstan reported their first deaths on Thursday.

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

** About half of the countries in sub-Saharan Africa still have a “narrowing” opportunity to curb the spread of the virus, the regional head of the World Health Organisation said.

** Turkey could order the public to stay at home if infections continue to spread, the government said as it clamped down further on medical equipment leaving the country.

** Iran started an intercity travel ban, a day after Tehran warned the country might face a second outbreak. Iran has reported 2,234 deaths and 29,406 infections so far.

** Lebanon will begin an overnight shutdown from 7 p.m. to 5 a.m., as it steps up measures to combat the virus.

** The United Arab Emirates will impose overnight curfews as a temporary measure this weekend, when it will carry out a nationwide disinfection campaign.

** Qatar signed agreements to increase its strategic food stuff reserves.

** Saudi Arabia has released 250 foreign detainees held on non-violent immigration and residency offences.

** South African President tested negative for the virus, as the country begins a countrywide lockdown.

ECONOMIC FALLOUT

** A Wall Street rally powered global gains in stocks despite a record number of new unemployment filings in the United States, as traders focused on the Senate’s passage of the relief bill and the possibility of more stimulus to come.

** The number of jobs lost around the world due to the coronavirus crisis could be “far higher” than the 25 million the International Labour Organization (ILO) estimated just a week ago, a senior ILO official said.

** European Union leaders will back plans to defend healthcare, infrastructure and other firms considered strategic from hostile foreign takeovers, draft EU summit conclusions show.

** The Group of 20 major economies will do “whatever it takes” to overcome the coronavirus crisis and are injecting $5 trillion into the global economy though national measures as part of their efforts to lessen its impact.

** The United States “may well be in recession” but progress in controlling the outbreak will determine when the economy can fully reopen, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said.

** India announced a $22.6 billion stimulus plan that provides direct cash transfers and food security measures to millions of poor people hit by a nationwide lockdown.

** China is implementing $344 billion of mainly fiscal measures in its fight against the outbreak.

** Japan’s government offered its bleakest assessment on the economy in nearly seven years, saying conditions in March were “severe.”

EVENTS

** It is too soon to decide whether the Tour de France can go ahead, but if it does it may be without roadside spectators, France’s sports minister said.

(Compiled by Milla Nissi, Sarah Morland and Aditya Soni; Editing by Tomasz Janowski)

Italy coronavirus deaths rise by 662 in a day, lifting total death toll to 8,165

ROME (Reuters) – The death toll from an outbreak of coronavirus in Italy has grown by 662 to 8,165, the Civil Protection Agency said on Thursday.

However, there appeared to be an error in the agency’s data because it reported no deaths on Thursday in the third-worst-affected region, Piedmont, which would be unprecedented in recent days.

Separately, Piedmont authorities said their death toll had risen by 50 in the last 24 hours.

On Wednesday 683 people died. That followed 743 deaths on Tuesday, 602 on Monday, 650 on Sunday and a record of 793 on Saturday — the highest daily figure since the contagion came to light on Feb. 21.

The total number of confirmed cases in Italy rose to 80,539 from a previous 74,386, the Civil Protection Agency said — the highest number of new cases since March 21.

Of those originally infected nationwide, 10,361 had fully recovered on Thursday compared to 9,362 the day before. There were 3,612 people in intensive care against a previous 3,489.

The hardest-hit northern region of Lombardy reported a steep rise in fatalities compared with the day before and remains in a critical situation, with a total of 4,861 deaths and 34,889 cases.

That compared with 4,474 deaths and 32,346 cases reported up to Wednesday.

(Reporting By Gavin Jones, editing by Crispian Balmer)

Spain’s coronavirus death toll surpasses 4,000

MADRID (Reuters) – Spain registered 655 fatalities from the coronavirus over the past 24 hours – down from over 700 on Wednesday, the health ministry reported on Thursday as the total death toll from the epidemic in the country rose to over 4,000.

The overall number of coronavirus cases soared to 56,188 from 47,610 on Wednesday. The number of reported deaths from the virus rose to 4,089 from 3,434 on Wednesday, the ministry said.

(Reporting by Nathan Allen and Inti Landauro)

A daughter learns in voicemails that coronavirus has killed her mother

By Tim Reid

(Reuters) – Debbie de los Angeles woke up on March 3 to two voicemails from nurses at the Seattle-area care home that housed her 85-year-old mother, Twilla Morin.

In the first one, left at 4:15 a.m., a nurse asked a troubling question – whether the “do not resuscitate” instructions for her mother’s end-of-life care were still in force.

“We anticipate that she, too, has coronavirus, and she’s running a fever of 104,” the woman on the recording said. “We do not anticipate her fighting, so we just want to make sure that your goal of care would be just to keep her here and comfortable.”

The nursing home in Kirkland, Washington was dealing with the beginnings of an outbreak that has since been linked to more than 30 deaths. De los Angeles had not yet fully grasped the grave threat; she comforted herself with the thought that her mother had made it through flu outbreaks at the center before.

Then she took in the next voicemail, left three hours after the first by a different nurse.

“Hi Debbie, my name is Chelsey … I need to talk to you about your Mom if you could give us a call. Her condition is declining, so if you can call us soon as possible that would be great. Thanks. Bye.”

De los Angeles called the home immediately. Her mom was comfortable, she was told. She did not change the “do not resuscitate” instruction. She wanted to visit, but held off: She is 65, and her husband Bob is 67; both have underlying medical conditions that pose serious risks if they contract coronavirus. She thought they had more time to find the best way to comfort her mother in what might be her final hours.

At 3 a.m. the next morning, Wednesday, March 4, de los Angeles woke up and reached for her phone. Life Care Center had called – leaving another voice message just a few minutes earlier, at 2:39 a.m.

“I know it’s early in the morning but Twilla did pass away at 2:10 because of the unique situation,” the nurse said. “The remains will be picked up from the coroner’s office. They’ve got your contact.”

The “unique situation” has of course become tragically common worldwide, as thousands of families have been separated from their loved ones in the last days before they died in isolation, often after deteriorating quickly. The three voicemails – eerily routine and matter-of-fact – would be de los Angeles’ final connection to her mother. She had gone from knowing relatively little about the threat of COVID-19 to becoming a bereaved daughter in the span of one day.

The hurried voicemails with such sensitive information were one sign of the chaos inside the facility at the time, as nurses worked feverishly to contain the outbreak while residents died from a virus that was just hitting the United States. One of the nurses who called de los Angeles, Chelsey Earnest, had been director of nursing at another Life Care facility and volunteered to come to Kirkland to care for patients through the outbreak. She never expected the disease would cause dozens of deaths and the mass infection of patients and staff.

Earnest worked the night shift, when patients with the disease seemed to struggle the most, and many, like Morin, succumbed to the disease. Infected patients developed a redness in and around their eyes. The center’s phones rang constantly as worried families called for updates. About a third of the center’s 180 staff members started showing symptoms of the disease; the rest started a triage operation.

“There were no protocols,” said Life Care spokesman Tim Killian, as nurses found themselves thrust into a situation more dire than any faced by an elderly care facility “in the history of this country.”

The center’s nurses, he said, would not normally leave such sensitive information about dying relatives in voicemails, but they had little time to do anything else – and did not want anyone to hear about a loved one’s condition in the news before the center could inform them. Outside the home, journalists and family members gathered for the latest scraps of information on the home’s fight against the virus. Many relatives, barred from going inside for safety reasons, stood outside the windows of their loved ones’ rooms, looking at them through the glass as they conversed over the phone.

Leaving the emergency voicemails, Killian said, made “the best of a difficult situation.”

From the outside, the messages appear abrupt and impersonal, but may well have been the best or only way to properly notify families in such a crisis, said Ruth Faden, professor of biomedical ethics at John Hopkins University’s Berman Institute of Bioethics. While medical professionals should normally aim to impart such urgent information in person, the circumstances – an overwhelmed staff, dealing with dozens of dying patients – likely made that impossible, she said.

“The way to find out is difficult, always,” Faden said. “What people remember is how much the nurse cared about the person.”

When de Los Angeles heard of her mother’s death in one of those voicemails, she immediately called one of the nurses back, looking for any bits of information about her mother’s final hours. The nurse sounded upset.

“She told me my Mom was one of her favorite people there; she was going to miss seeing my Mom going up and down the hallway in her wheelchair,” de los Angeles said.

They had given her mother morphine and Ativan to keep her calm and comfortable, the nurse told her.

“My Mom was asleep, and then she just went to sleep permanently,” de los Angeles said.

De los Angeles, an only child, aches over not having spoken to her mother before she died. Morin had been a bookkeeper for several companies. De los Angeles fondly remembers doing household chores with her mother on Saturday mornings, then going to the local mall or to Woolworth’s for lunch.

The separation continued even after her mother’s death. De los Angeles telephoned the crematorium where her mother had been taken, as Morin had arranged years earlier, to ask if she could view the body.

“Absolutely not,” the woman told her, out of concern de los Angeles could be infected.

Morin had been tested for coronavirus shortly after she died, on March 4. The results confirmed her coronavirus infection a week later. Soon afterwards, she was cremated.

“We picked up her ashes on Saturday,” she said. “I never saw or spoke to mom. It’s put off the closure.”

It’s also put off the funeral. De los Angeles had planned the ceremony for April 4 – the birthday of her father, who died ten years ago. Her ashes would be placed next to his. But the service will have to wait because Washington’s governor, Jay Inslee, has banned gatherings of 10 people or more.

In the meantime, de los Angeles has worked to make sure her mother’s death certificate records her as a causality of the pandemic. The doctor who signed it did not have confirmed test results showing a COVID-19 infection at the time of her death, de los Angeles said, and listed the cause as “a viral illness, coronary artery disease and a respiratory disorder.” But the doctor has since moved to include coronavirus as a cause, at de los Angeles’ request.

As she waits for the funeral, de los Angeles has put the urn holding her mother’s ashes behind some flowers on the mantle in her living room. She says she can’t bear to look at it.

(Reporting by Tim Reid; Editing by Brian Thevenot)

Factbox: Global economic policy response to the coronavirus pandemic

LONDON (Reuters) – Governments and central banks around the world have unleashed unprecedented amounts of fiscal and monetary stimulus and other support over the past month for national economies reeling from the coronavirus pandemic.

Following is a summary of the main policy steps so far.

UNITED STATES

MONETARY STIMULUS – The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 150 basis points total in two emergency meetings on March 3 (50 basis points) and March 15 (100 bps), taking the federal funds rate to 0-0.25%, along with $700 billion in asset purchases, or quantitative easing (QE).

It also cut the discount window rate by 150 basis points. The Fed followed on March 23 with unlimited and open-ended QE, planned purchases of corporate, municipal government bonds.

LIQUIDITY OPERATIONS AND FUNDING – Trillions of dollars in repurchase agreements flooding the markets with cash; swap lines with other major central banks to provide dollar funding; program to support money market funds; various easing of bank capital buffers; funding backstop for businesses to provide bridging loans of up to four years; funding to help credit flow in asset-backed securities markets; also plans to extend credit to small- and medium-sized businesses.

FISCAL STIMULUS (FEDERAL) – U.S. Senate passed a $2 trillion stimulus package on March 25 including a $500 billion fund to help hard-hit industries and a comparable amount for direct payments of up to $3,000 apiece to millions of U.S. families. The U.S. House of Representatives will vote on Friday.

EURO ZONE

MONETARY STIMULUS – The European Central Bank on March 12 added 120 billion euros to its existing asset-purchase program of 20 billion a month, more quantitative easing (QE). On March 19, the ECB added another 750 billion euros in QE, taking the total to about 1.1 trillion euros this year, and added Greece to the portfolio of bonds it would purchase. On March 26, it eliminated a cap on how many bonds it can buy from any single euro zone country.

LIQUIDITY OPERATIONS AND FUNDING – The ECB cut the interest rate on its Targeted Long-Term Refinancing Operations (TLTROs), cheap loans to banks by 25 basis points to -0.75% on March 12. It provided additional LTROs to bridge bank funding through to June and relaxed capital rules.

FISCAL/OTHER: Suspension of limits on EU government borrowing; considering allowing a precautionary credit line worth 2% of national GDP from the ESM bailout fund.

GERMANY

FISCAL STIMULUS – Agreed a package worth up to 750 billion euros on March 23; 100 billion euros for an economic stability fund that can take direct equity stakes in companies; 100 billion euros in credit to public-sector development bank KfW for loans to struggling businesses; stability fund will offer 400 billion euros in loan guarantees to secure corporate debt at risk of defaulting.

FRANCE

FISCAL STIMULUS – 45 billion euros of crisis measures on March 17 in to the economy to help companies and workers; guaranteeing up to 300 billion euros of corporate borrowing from commercial banks on March 16.

ITALY

FISCAL STIMULUS – Emergency decree worth 25 billion euros on March 16 which suspends loan and mortgage repayments for companies and families and increases funds to help firms pay workers temporarily laid off.

SPAIN

FISCAL STIMULUS – A 200 billion-euro package announced on March 17; half of the economic assistance measures are state-backed credit guarantees for companies and the rest include loans and aid for vulnerable people.

UNITED KINGDOM

MONETARY STIMULUS – The Bank of England cut interest rates by a total of 65 basis points in two emergency meetings on March 11 (50 bps) and March 19 (15 bps); taking Bank Rate to a record low of 0.10%; announces 200 billion pounds of bond purchases.

LIQUIDITY OPERATIONS AND FUNDING – The BoE also introduced a new program for cheap credit and reduced a capital buffer to help banks lend. A BoE corporate financing facility will buy commercial paper with a maturity of up to 12 months from businesses that had an investment-grade credit rating or similar pre-crisis.

FISCAL STIMULUS – A 30 billion-pound stimulus plan on March 11; 330 billion pounds in loan guarantees to businesses; offered to pay 80% of wage bills if staff put on leave up to a maximum of 2,500 pounds ($2,930) a month each – if firms kept them on. Businesses also allowed to temporarily hold on to 30 billion pounds ($35 billion) of value-added tax (VAT).

CANADA

MONETARY STIMULUS – The Bank of Canada cut rates by 100 basis points in two emergency meetings on March 4 (50 bps) and March 13 (50 bps), taking the overnight interest rate to 0.75%.

LIQUIDITY OPERATIONS AND FUNDING – eligible collateral for term repo operations expanded; C$50 billion ($34.6 billion) insured mortgage purchase program; C$10 billion credit support program for businesses.

FISCAL STIMULUS – C$55 billion in tax deferrals for businesses and families; C$27 billion aid package for workers and low-income households.

JAPAN

MONETARY POLICY – The Bank of Japan eased monetary policy by ramping up purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and other risky assets, including corporate bonds. The central bank also decided to create a new loan program to extend one-year, zero-rate loans to financial institutions.

FISCAL STIMULUS – The government announced 430.8 billion yen ($4.1 billion) of extra spending, much aimed at supporting affected small and medium-sized businesses. The government will also fund upgrades to medical facilities, and subsidize working parents forced to go on leave because of closed schools.

No fiscal stimulus plans have been announced, but something is expected in April, which may include cash payouts. They could be worth more than 30 trillion yen ($270 billion).

AUSTRALIA

MONETARY STIMULUS – The Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates by a total of 50 basis points in two decisions (25 bps at the March 3 meeting and another 25 bps at a March 19 emergency meeting), taking the cash rate to 0.25%; introduces first use of quantitative easing, setting a target of around 0.25% for bond yields.

LIQUIDITY OPERATIONS AND FUNDING – A$90 billion ($53.3 billion) funding facility to banks at fixed rate of 0.25%; A$15 billion purchase program of residential mortgage-backed and other asset-backed securities; A$715 million support program for airlines.

FISCAL STIMULUS – A$66.1 billion in assistance for companies and additional welfare payments; A$17.6 billion package in subsidies for apprentices, small businesses, pensioners and others.

SOUTH KOREA

MONETARY STIMULUS – Bank of Korea cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 0.75% on March 16.

FISCAL STIMULUS – Supplementary budget of 11.7 trillion won; 50 trillion won in emergency financing for small businesses; further loosened key capital flow rules temporarily to encourage local financial institutions to supply more dollars.

CHINA

MONETARY STIMULUS – People’s Bank of China cut its one-year Loan Prime Rate, first introduced in August, by 10 basis points to 4.05% on Feb 20, following various liquidity injections and other mild policy easing. The PBOC cut the cash banks must hold as reserves for the second time this year on March 13, releasing 550 billion yuan ($79 billion).

LIQUIDITY AND FUNDING – China offered easier funding for small- and medium-sized businesses, increasing yuan re-lending and re-discount quotas by 500 billion yuan on Feb 25. Also increased policy banks’ loan quota by 350 billion yuan to make loans targeting these businesses.

FISCAL STIMULUS – China is set to unleash trillions of yuan of fiscal stimulus. The ramped-up spending will aim to spur infrastructure investment, backed by as much as 2.8 trillion yuan ($394 billion) of local government special bonds, according to sources on March 19. The national budget deficit ratio could rise to record levels, sources added.

Various small measures and fiscal expenditure such as tax breaks, reduced power charges and fee reductions.

BRAZIL

MONETARY STIMULUS – Central Bank of Brazil cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 3.75% and eased capital requirements for financial institutions.

LIQUIDITY OPERATIONS AND FUNDING – 1.2 trillion reais ($233.8 billion) central bank program to inject liquidity through purchases of bank loan portfolio packages; new rules allowing banks to offer firms and households increased loans and better terms; central bank intervention in FX markets and repurchases of dollar-denominated sovereign bonds.

FISCAL STIMULUS – 150 billion reais budget boost to support most vulnerable population and jobs; presidential decree declaring national emergency over the coronavirus passed in Congress, allowing the government to waive fiscal targets and free up budget resources. [nL1N

INDIA

FISCAL STIMULUS – The Federal government announced on March 26 a 1.7 trillion rupee ($22.6-billion) economic stimulus plan providing direct cash transfers and food security measures.

SOUTH AFRICA

MONETARY STIMULUS – The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) cut its main lending rate by 100 basis points to 5.25% on March 19.

LIQUIDITY OPERATIONS AND FUNDING – The SARB announced on March 25 a program to buy bonds of varying maturities on the secondary market, but it did not give further details.

(Compiled by Reuters Polls)

Exclusive: As coronavirus spreads, U.S. military to withhold some infection data

By Phil Stewart and Idrees Ali

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. military has decided it will stop providing some of the more granular data about coronavirus infections within its ranks, citing concern that the information might be used by adversaries as the virus spreads.

U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper outlined the plan in an interview with Reuters, saying that he wanted the military to keep providing broader data about infections in the armed forces, which rose by more than a third to 280 current cases on Thursday.

But Esper, a former Army secretary, said he wanted some of the more mission-specific information to be withheld to prevent compromising operational security.

“What we want to do is give you aggregated numbers. But we’re not going to disaggregate numbers because it could reveal information about where we may be affected at a higher rate than maybe some other places,” Esper said, without disclosing precisely what information would be withheld or when the plan would be implemented.

Such a decision could upend expectations about the kind of disclosure about coronavirus fallout the public can expect from the military, which has a small number of infections relative to overall forces of well over 1 million active duty troops.

Beyond daily updates on infections across the armed forces, the U.S. military has been telling the public for weeks about the locations of individual cases, from on a warship to inside the Pentagon and at overseas commands throughout the world.

Esper noted that it was one thing to disclose the case of the first U.S. soldier infected with coronavirus, which U.S. forces in South Korea did last month. But he wanted to guard against creating the expectation of regular updates everywhere.

“I’m not going to get into a habit where we start providing numbers across all the commands and we come to a point six, seven weeks from now where we have some concerns in some locations and reveal information that could put people at risk,” he said.

Esper said operational security was particularly important in places overseas where the United States is combating adversaries, noting the fight against al-Shabaab in East Africa as well as Islamic State militants in Syria or Afghanistan.

Still, he did not expect those missions to be disrupted by the coronavirus, saying “we have more than enough capability.”

“The rate of infection and its impact is not hitting us at the levels that we have any concerns about right now,” he said.

Pentagon spokeswoman Alyssa Farah said in a statement that the Department of Defense was “committed to transparency,” holding regular briefings and town halls. But she added disclosing readiness data at the unit level could be a risk.

“If at some point in the future, a commander believes that the coronavirus could affect the readiness of our strategic deterrent or strategic response forces we would understandably protect that information,” she said.

U.S. INFECTIONS OUTSTRIP ONES OVERSEAS

But Esper’s remarks appear to underscore U.S. military concerns about the potential trajectory of the virus over the coming months – both at home and abroad.

There has been a sharp increase in coronavirus cases among troops inside the United States, which officials tell Reuters have overtaken the number of cases among forces overseas in key branches of military.

The Air Force told Reuters that the United States was home to about 85 percent of its confirmed coronavirus cases among its personnel as of Wednesday. The Navy said roughly 90 percent of its cases were in the United States.

The Army declined to say how many of its personnel who tested positive were at home or overseas.

Esper did not confirm whether the number of cases was higher in the United States or abroad but noted that commanders overseas have greater ability to impose restrictions on troops and their families.

“You have far, far, far greater control of your servicemembers when you’re deployed abroad, even when you’re stationed abroad, than you do back in the United States,” he said.

Asked about the Reuters report, acting U.S. Navy Secretary Thomas Modly said on Thursday that there was a need to balance transparency with operational and security concerns.

Modly said that the Navy would follow directions from Esper, but added he believed that “being as transparent as possible is probably the best path.”

Reuters has reported that thousands of U.S. military personnel are in quarantine or in self-isolation in Europe and the Middle East due to either exposure to someone infected or recent travel to high-risk locations.

But the precise number worldwide has not been disclosed and some commands have declined to offer figures, including the U.S. military’s Southern Command.

A spokesman at the U.S. Africa Command, Air Force Colonel Christopher Karns, said his command would publicly report confirmed cases of infection but was not looking “to advertise” the number of people under quarantine.

“If advertised, numbers can be used by adversaries to their advantage,” Karns said in a statement.

(Reporting by Phil Stewart and Idrees Ali; Editing by Nick Zieminski and Sonya Hepinstall)

How many Americans have coronavirus? New Reuters poll might offer a hint

By Maurice Tamman

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The official count of coronavirus infections in the United States sits at about 70,000 cases, but a chronic shortage of tests means only a fraction of the people infected are being counted. So how can we know how many Americans actually might have the disease?

A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in the past several days could offer what one behavioral health expert called a “fascinating” hint of the possible numbers.

In the nationwide poll, 2.3% of Americans surveyed said they’ve been diagnosed with the coronavirus, a percentage that could translate to several million people.

Of course, it’s impossible to know if the answers are a result of misinformed self-diagnoses, untested professional diagnoses or test-confirmed infections. But Carnegie Mellon University professor Baruch Fischhoff, who studies risk perception and analysis, said that the poll results shouldn’t be viewed as merely a collective neurotic reaction to the pandemic.

Given the shortage of coronavirus test kits, it may well be a broadly accurate estimate of the extent of the infection across the United States, he said. “It may be the best available data,” he said.

A further 2.4% of those polled said they have been in close contact with someone who has tested positive. And in an illustration of the degrees of separation with the deadly virus, a further 2.6% said they knew someone who has been in close contact with a person who has tested positive.

The poll, which surveyed 4,428 adults between March 18 and 24, shows a dramatic increase in those saying they have tested positive for the virus from a similar poll conducted just a few days earlier. In the Reuters/Ipsos poll of 1,115 Americans conducted March 16 and 17, about 1% said they were infected.

The latest poll also suggests that Latinos are far more likely to come in contact with people who may be infected than whites; the same appears true for younger people compared to older Americans. The disease appears to be concentrated in the Northeast, according to the poll, but the survey also suggests it’s widespread throughout the country.

David Cates, director of behavioral health at Nebraska Medical Center in Omaha, was intrigued by the results.

“Going back to that concept of the wisdom of crowds, you’re getting a response that may actually be closer to reality than confirmed testing,” he said. “And that is just absolutely fascinating.”

But he said the conflicting information from officials and in the media, as well as the shortage of testing, may also explain some of the response to the poll.

“They are listening to the news and thinking, ‘Yeah, you know, that’s what my father has, and that’s what I have,'” he said. “And this is probably what’s going on with the neighbor.”

Still, the poll results may fill some gaps in knowledge in the face of limited testing.

For example, Fischhoff said, on March 15, Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine estimated there were about 100,000 infections in his state, which represents about 1% of the state’s population, despite there only being a handful of confirmed cases at the time. The governor’s office declined to comment on the estimate.

“You know, with the doubling rate in the country, it’s not implausible that the infected rate was 1% and now it’s 2.3%,” he said.

He commented on another finding in the poll, the difference in proximity between rural and urban areas. In rural communities, according to the poll, about 9% of people said they were either infected; had contact with someone infected; or knew someone infected in their extended social network. In denser urban areas, that rate rose to 13%.

“As you would expect, as you’ve got greater density, you’d expect a higher rate,” he said.

Northwestern University economics professor Charles Manski said he was gratified to see that older Americans may have less exposure to infected people than other age groups. The disease poses a particular risk for the elderly.

Only 6% of Americans 55 and over said they were either infected; had contact with someone infected; or knew someone infected in their extended social network, the poll showed. That compares to 19% for adults under 35.

He said older people tend to have smaller social circles, which might explain part of the results, but he also thinks older Americans are being more careful than their younger counterparts.

Monica Schoch-Spana, a medical anthropologist with the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in Baltimore, Maryland, said the results also illustrate the risk to some ethnic communities as the broader economy shrinks and many retreat into their homes.

High-risk, low-paying jobs that have not been shut down – such as hospital custodial workers, farm laborers, delivery drivers and warehouse workers – tend to have a high percentage of minority workers.

The poll shows that about 16% of Latinos said they were either infected; had contact with someone infected; or knew someone infected in their extended social network, compared to about 9% for whites.

She also noted that the poll is a rare example of a subject that doesn’t have a massive partisan divide: About 14% of Democrats said they are infected or know of someone infected, compared to about 10% of Republicans.

(Reporting by Maurice Tamman; editing by Kari Howard)

U.S. attorney general seeks to expand home confinement as coronavirus spreads in prisons

By Sarah N. Lynch

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. Attorney General William Barr said Thursday he has directed the federal Bureau of Prisons (BOP) to expand its use of home confinement for inmates in appropriate cases, as the coronavirus has continued to spread in the federal prison system.

A total of six inmates and four prison staffers have tested positive for COVID-19, Barr said, adding that several federal facilities including two in New York City are now on lock-down as a result.

The First Step Act, signed into law by U.S. President Donald Trump in late 2018, expanded the BOP’s powers to maximize the amount of time that lower-risk inmates can spend in home confinement, when possible.

“I’ve asked and issued a memorandum just today to the Bureau of Prisons to increase the use of home confinement,” Barr told reporters during what Barr said was the department’s first-ever “virtual” press conference in order to practice social-distancing.

“One of the things we have to assess is whether that individual…will be more safe in the particular circumstance in which they are going to find themselves. And in many cases, that may not be the case.”

He added that any inmate released on home confinement will still face a 14-day quarantine.

The plans by the Justice Department to increase the use of home confinement comes as criminal justice advocates and union officials representing prison workers have called on Barr to implement tougher measures to prevent the coronavirus from spreading throughout the federal prison system.

Some local jails and prisons in states such as New Jersey, meanwhile, have taken more drastic steps by releasing “low-risk” inmates serving county jail sentences [L1N2BG1M6]

The BOP has not signaled it would take such a step, though it has stepped up safe guards, including through the implementation of a policy requiring all new inmates to be quarantined for 14 days.

(Reporting by Sarah N. Lynch; Editing by Marguerita Choy)

Senate sends House $2 trillion coronavirus bill; vote expected Friday

By David Morgan and Richard Cowan

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. Senate’s unanimous passage of an estimated $2.2 trillion coronavirus relief bill sent the unprecedented economic rescue legislation to the House of Representatives, whose leaders hope to pass it on Friday.

The plan will speed direct payments on their way to Americans within three weeks, once the Democratic-controlled House passes it and President Donald Trump has signed it into law, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said.

The Republican-led Senate approved the bill – which would be the largest fiscal stimulus measure ever passed by Congress – by 96 votes to zero late on Wednesday, overcoming bitter partisan negotiations and boosting its chances of passing the Democratic-majority House.

The unanimous vote, a rare departure from bitter partisanship in Washington that followed several days of wrangling, underscored how seriously members of Congress are taking the global pandemic as Americans suffer and the medical system reels.

“When there’s a crisis of this magnitude, the private sector cannot solve it,” Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer said.

“Individuals, even with bravery and valor, are not powerful enough to beat it back. Government is the only force large enough to staunch the bleeding and begin the healing.”

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated the price tag at $2.2 trillion.

The package is intended to flood the country with cash in a bid to stem the crushing impact on the economy of an intensifying pandemic that has killed about 1,000 people in the United States and infected nearly 70,000.

Only two other nations, China and Italy, have more coronavirus cases than the United States. The World Health Organization has warned the United States looks set to become the epicenter of the pandemic.

The American government’s intervention follows two other packages that became law this month. The money at stake amounts to nearly half of the total $4.7 trillion the U.S. government spends annually.

Trump, a Republican who has promised to sign the bill as soon as it passes the House, expressed his delight on Twitter. “96-0 in the United States Senate. Congratulations AMERICA!” he wrote.

House leaders said they would have a voice vote on Friday. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she backed the bill, and was open to passing more legislation if needed to address the crisis in the future.

The House Republican leadership is recommending a “yes” vote. Republican leader Kevin McCarthy predicted the measure would pass. He said the voice vote would take place Friday morning following a debate, but noted the entire House might not be present.

“Remember where we are today. We have a number of members who have the virus on both sides of the aisle, we have a number of members who are quarantined, we have challenges for flying here because some flights are being canceled. So you might not have the full body, but you want to make sure you have the debate,” McCarthy said on Fox News.

The massive bill, worth more than $2 trillion, includes a $500 billion fund to help hard-hit industries and a comparable amount for direct payments of up to $3,000 apiece to millions of families.

The legislation will also provide $350 billion for small-business loans, $250 billion for expanded unemployment aid and at least $100 billion for hospitals and related health systems.

The House has 430 members, most of whom have been out of Washington since March 14. Many want to return for the vote, but for all to attend would be difficult, given that at least two have tested positive for the coronavirus, a handful of others are in self-quarantine, and several states have issued stay-at-home orders.

The Senate’s No. 2 Republican, John Thune, missed Wednesday’s vote because he was not feeling well. His spokesman said Thune flew back to his state, South Dakota, on a charter flight Wednesday, accompanied by a Capitol Police officer and wearing a mask.

There are five vacant House seats.

(Reporting by David Morgan and Richard Cowan, additional reporting by Susan Cornwell and Patricia Zengerle; Editing by Scott Malone and Jonathan Oatis)

New Orleans is next coronavirus epicenter, catalyst for spread in south, experts say

By Brad Brooks

(Reuters) – New Orleans is on track to become the next coronavirus epicenter in the United States, dashing hopes that less densely populated and warmer-climate cities would not be hit as hard by the pandemic, and that summer months could see it wane.

The plight of New Orleans – with the world’s highest growth rate in coronavirus cases and where authorities have warned hospitals could collapse by April 4 – also raises fears it may be a powerful catalyst in speedily spreading the virus across the south of the country.

New Orleans is the biggest city in Louisiana, the state with the third-highest case load of coronavirus in the United States on a per capita basis after the major epicenters of New York and Washington. The growth rate in Louisiana tops all others, according to a University of Louisiana at Lafayette analysis of global data, with the number of cases rising by 30% in the 24 hours before noon on Wednesday. On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump issued a major federal disaster declaration for the state, freeing federal funds and resources.

Some 70% of Louisiana’s 1,795 confirmed cases to date are in the New Orleans metro area.

The culprit for the coronavirus in the Big Easy? Some blame Carnival.

“Mardi Gras was the perfect storm, it provided the perfect conditions for the spread of this virus,” said Dr. Rebekah Gee, who until January was the Health Secretary for Louisiana and now heads up Louisiana State University’s health care services division.

She noted that Fat Tuesday fell on Feb. 25 – when the virus was already in the United States but before the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and national leaders had raised the alarm with the American public.

“So New Orleans had its normal level of celebration, which involved people congregating in large crowds and some 1.4 million tourists,” Gee said. “We shared drink cups. We shared each other’s space in the crowds. We shared floats where we were throwing not just beads but probably coronavirus off Carnival floats to people who caught it and took it with them to where they came from.”

Gee said that the explosive growth rate of the coronavirus in the Mississippi River port city means “it’s on the trajectory to become the epicenter for the outbreak in the United States.”

RESILIENT, BUT WARY

Dr. Peter Hotez is the dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College, a renowned vaccine scientist and an expert on the coronavirus pandemic.

He said that the rapid grip the virus is gaining on New Orleans was deeply worrying and a possible harbinger for worse to come across the south and for less densely populated and warmer cities across America.

“There has been some research and data suggesting that warmer, more humid weather could slow this epidemic,” he said. “The fact that this occurred on the Gulf Coast, which has some of the higher humidity and temperatures in the U.S., is a serious concern.”

Hotez noted that more research into how climate does or does not play a role in the spread of this coronavirus needs to happen, but acknowledged that experts hoped that warm weather and the coming summer months in the northern hemisphere would be natural buffers against it.

“If you look at this epidemic, we’ve not seen much in the hotter parts of the country. Texas has not had a lot. Arizona has not had a lot. Then all of a sudden – bam! – it appears in strength in New Orleans,” he said. “We have to follow this trend closely.”

Having an entirely new coronavirus epicenter kick off means that the United States may soon be dealing with multiple hot spots all at once, Hotez said – a worst-case scenario that could cripple healthcare systems.

If predictions were correct, the hospitals in New Orleans would struggle to manage past next week, Governor John Bel Edwards told a news conference on Tuesday.

New Orleans could well be the first major domino to fall in the south, starting a chain reaction in other metro areas in the region, said Hotez.

That is a serious concern for Houston, the fourth-largest city in the country and a major center for the oil industry. The two cities have historically strong links made even more so by an influx of New Orleans residents into Houston following Hurricanes Katrina and Harvey.

On the ground in New Orleans’ famed French Quarter, residents said they were definitely concerned, but that the virus was an entirely different threat from the natural disasters that routinely befall the city.

Jonathan Sanders, a 35-year-old general manager of the French Quarter brasserie Justine, said the city was calm and residents largely heeding authorities orders to stay inside.

“There is always something going on at all hours of the day or night. Now, without it all, it’s very peaceful,” he said. “You can park anywhere in the French Quarter.”

The virus, Sanders said, was so far easier to deal with than the death and destruction Hurricane Katrina unleashed in 2005, when over 1,800 people died along the Gulf Coast.

“When you think of the total destruction of Katrina… that was gut wrenching,” he said. “We’re fairly more resilient than other places that haven’t had so many tragic things happen to their city.”