Globally the Oval Office is looking weak. What does that mean for our adversaries?

Hassan-Nasrallah

Important Takeaways:

  • ‘When America’s weak, the axis strengthens’: Fmr. Mossad official says Hezbollah fears war
  • Oded Ilam, a former senior Mossad official, spoke recently with Arel Segal on his show on 103FM radio to discuss the implications of Biden’s failure in the recent presidential debate against Donald Trump and the possible escalation in the North.
  • Ilam began by saying, “The Americans, although I don’t think they are anti-Israeli, continue to misunderstand the situation we are in. Biden and his administration have their hearts in the right place. The famous ‘warning’ that Biden gave to the Iranians didn’t move them at all. They attacked Israel anyway, and the American response was that the administration issued condolences for Raisi’s death. The American administration repeatedly shows weakness, which is also reflected in the ongoing negotiations.”
  • “Every time Hamas does not accept a deal with Israel, we are forced to step back two more steps. It is hard for me to see a situation where Hamas allows us to write up another agreement that doesn’t include withdrawing from the Philadelphi Corridor,” Ilam noted. “I can assume that when America is weak, the axis strengthens. This confrontation is very significant. I saw Biden’s performance in Atlanta, where he was different than at the recent debate. He was excellent. The same team that advised him to go to the debate is exactly the same team that shapes America’s policy.”

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Russia sends a new peace plan to Washington over Ukraine War

Putin-ready-to-share-Crimea

Important Takeaways:

  • Putin ‘is prepared to SHARE Crimea with Ukraine according to new peace plan that has been presented by Russia to the US’
  • It would see the Kremlin dictator gain spoils from going to war.
  • ‘The main purpose of his [Kolokoltsev’s] arrival was to hand over Russia’s peace plan to the US authorities,’ said Gordon, who said it was a Putin plan ‘to end the war’.
  • The demands were that Ukraine must completely withdraw from Donetsk and Luhansk regions, both of which are now partially annexed by Russia.
  • But Russia would hand over Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station and the nearby town of Enerhodar to Ukraine.
  • And he would discuss the possible transfer of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions to the control of Ukraine.
  • Crimea would become a ‘specially demilitarized administrative territory with dual subordination to Ukraine and the Russian Federation’.
  • Ukraine must take on itself legally binding international guarantees, not to block the supply of water to Crimea,’ said Gordon, reading from a document.
  • Putin seized the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea in 2014 and vowed he would never return it to Ukraine.
  • Ukraine would also control a 62-mile ‘demilitarized zone’ along the Dnipro River.
  • The Ukrainian army would have a legal maximum size, and the country would be barred from joining NATO, a key Zelinsky goal.
  • But Putin would not seek to block Ukraine joining the EU.
  • The West would drop sanctions on Russian oil and gas, as well as banking.
  • Gordon gave the army size as 350,000, but the Gosdumskaya Telegram channel said 150,000.
  • The UN meeting that the Russian minister attended was a ‘diversionary maneuver’, said Gordon.
  • The Donetsk and Luhansk regions cannot be transferred under the control of Ukraine, because this will cause, they say, the imminent genocide of the population of the territory, a third of which took part in hostilities against Ukraine,’ said Gordon.
  • There has been no official comment from the US, Russia or Ukraine over the alleged back channel contacts concerning Kolokoltsev’s visit.
  • Intriguingly, Kolokoltsev’s plane was seen alongside former US president Donald Trump’s aircraft as it arrived in Washington.
  • Trump has vowed that he could rapidly halt the debilitating war if re-elected and hinted that this would involve Ukraine ceding territory in exchange for security assurances short of being a NATO member

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Drills: China practices targeting grounded F-35 and F-22 jets

massive-scorch-marks

Important Takeaways:

  • China rehearses assault on US stealth fighter bases: Beijing military stages attacks on F-35 and F-22 jets as it looks to deter American intervention in Taiwan
  • China is bombing models of American fighter jets as part of a rehearsal of a military assault, new satellite photos have revealed.
  • The images, taken by Planet Labs over a remote desert area in northwest China, show massive scorch marks next to low-tech models of F-35s and F-22s, some of the most advanced jets used by the US Army.
  • The photos also show a long runway with several scotch marks at the top end.
  • It is not currently known exactly what weapons were used to leave the marks, but the Times reported that the scale of them would suggest precision missiles were used.
  • The desert, the Taklamakan in Xinjiang province, already hosts military testing sites. Three years ago, it was revealed that China had built up models of an American Ford-class aircraft carrier and two Arleigh Burke-class destroyers.
  • It comes as a Chinese military drone hovered near an airport on a remote Taiwan island causing delays to flights, Taipei’s military and local media said on Wednesday.
  • In addition to military pressure from Chinese warplanes and vessels that maintain a near-daily presence around the island, Taiwan has faced incursions from civilian and unidentified drones that surveil and harass troops.

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Russia’s most dangerous jets are parked a hundred miles from Ukraine but the Biden administration hasn’t yet given Ukraine permission to strike them

Voronezh-Malshevo-air-base

Important Takeaways:

  • Voronezh Malshevo air base, in southern Russia 100 miles from the border with Ukraine, might be the most important—and most vulnerable—target in Russia.
  • But it’s seemingly off of Ukraine’s list of targets for now.
  • From the base, Sukhoi Su-34 fighter-bombers belonging to the Russian air force’s 47th Guards Bomber Aviation Regiment fly daily sorties lobbing powerful glide bombs at Ukrainian troops and civilians from 25 miles away or farther.
  • “The large number of jets stationed at the airfield enables the simultaneous deployment of bombs, allowing multiple targets in Ukrainian territory to be engaged at once.”
  • They’re within range of Ukraine’s best deep strike weapon—its American-made Army Tactical Missile System rockets. “Ukraine could potentially incapacitate the entire operational fleet stationed there if permitted to conduct such a strike”
  • The main problem is Russia’s ground-based air defenses, which make it extremely dangerous for Ukrainian warplanes to fly at high altitude practically anywhere in Ukraine—but especially within a hundred miles or so of the front line, well within reach of Russia’s S-400 surface-to-air missile batteries.
  • So the Ukrainians wait for permission they hope is coming soon. “It is painful to watch those missiles flying over our heads toward Kharkiv and thinking if your home would be destroyed this time”

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Ukraine has foiled an alleged plot to overthrow the government

Ukraine's-parliament

Important Takeaways:

  • Ukraine has foiled an alleged plot to overthrow the government that “would have played into Russia’s hands,” security officials in the war-torn country said Monday.
  • In a Telegram post, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) claimed the plot organizers planned to trigger a riot in Kyiv on June 30 as a distraction to seize control of the Ukrainian parliament and remove the military and political leadership from power.
  • It is unclear how viable the planned plot was, or if those accused have any connection with Russia
  • Four suspects have been identified, with two held in custody, the SBU said. They face up to 10 years in prison if found guilty
  • The suspect rented a hall with a capacity of 2,000 people and was looking to recruit military personnel and armed guards from private companies to “carry out the seizure” of parliament, the prosecutor’s office said.

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Giuliani is disbarred in New York

Giuliani-disbarred

Important Takeaways:

  • Rudolph Giuliani, the former New York City mayor, federal prosecutor and legal adviser to Donald Trump, was disbarred in the state on Tuesday after a court found he repeatedly made false statements about Trump’s 2020 election loss.
  • A New York appeals court in Manhattan ruled that Giuliani, who had already had his New York law license suspended in 2021 for false statements he made after the election, is now “disbarred from the practice of law, effective immediately, and until the further order of this Court, and his name stricken from the roll of attorneys and counselors-at-law in the State of New York.”
  • Before pleading Trump’s case in November 2020, Giuliani had not appeared in court as an attorney since 1992, according to court records.
  • Giuliani built his public persona by practicing law, as the top federal prosecutor in Manhattan in the 1980s, when he went after mobsters, powerbrokers and others. The law-and-order reputation helped catapult him into politics, governing the United States’ most popular city when it was beset by high crime.

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The world is sitting on a $91 trillion problem

US-Treasury-Building

Important Takeaways:

  • Governments owe an unprecedented $91 trillion, an amount almost equal to the size of the global economy and one that will ultimately exact a heavy toll on their populations.
  • Debt burdens have grown so large — in part because of the cost of the pandemic — that they now pose a growing threat to living standards even in rich economies, including the United States.
  • Yet, in a year of elections around the world, politicians are largely ignoring the problem, unwilling to level with voters about the tax increases and spending cuts needed to tackle the deluge of borrowing.
  • In some cases, they’re even making profligate promises that could at the very least jack up inflation again and could even trigger a new financial crisis.
  • Tackling America’s debt problem will require either tax hikes or cuts to benefits, such as social security and health insurance programs
  • In the United States, the federal government will spend $892 billion in the current fiscal year on interest payments — more than it has earmarked for defense and approaching the budget for Medicare, health insurance for older people and those with disabilities.
  • Next year, interest payments will top $1 trillion on national debt of more than $30 trillion

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US to pay to Repatriate migrants that used Darién Gap route

Migrants-Darien-Pass-Panama

Important Takeaways:

  • New president José Raúl Mulino has vowed to close the route through which thousands of migrants travel to the US every year
  • Last year, a record 520,000 migrants risked their lives, often at the hands of people smugglers, to traverse the Darién Gap, a dense jungle on Panama’s border with Colombia.
  • Mulino’s new foreign minister signed a memorandum of understanding with the US government to “allow the closing off of the passing of illegal immigrants through the Darién”, Panama’s government said in a statement.
  • The agreement, signed by US homeland security secretary Alejandro Mayorkas who attended Mulino’s inauguration, will see the US agree to “cover” the costs of repatriating migrants who enter Panama illegally.
  • The agreement was designed to reduce the number of migrants being “smuggled through the Darién, usually en route to the United States”, a spokesperson for the White House national security council said in a statement.
  • Under the terms of the agreement, US homeland security teams on the ground in Panama would help the government there train personnel and build up its own expertise and ability to determine which migrants, under Panama’s immigration laws, could be removed from the country, according to two senior administration officials.
  • For those migrants who are to be removed, the US would pay for charter flights or commercial airplane tickets for them to return to their home countries.

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Hurricane Beryl making history – Twice

Hurricane-seasons

Important Takeaways:

  • Hurricane Beryl, which made landfall Monday on Carriacou Island, was the first Category 4 storm ever to form in the Atlantic Ocean in June.
  • No storm has reached Category 4 intensity so early in the hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
  • The previous record was held by Hurricane Dennis, which slammed into Cuba as a Category 4 storm on July 8, 2005.
  • The storm then intensified on Monday, making history again as the earliest Category 5 storm on record in the Atlantic.
  • The storm has killed at least four people so far, and officials said the number of fatalities could increase in the coming days.
  • In a news briefing Monday, Prime Minister of Grenada Dickon Mitchell said Hurricane Beryl flattened Carriacou in half an hour.
  • Rapid intensification is a major concern because storms that strengthen that quickly tend to be more destructive and can strike before people have time to evacuate or make adequate preparations.

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Manhattan DA won’t oppose Trump filing request to have NY conviction tossed

Trump-Faith-and-Freedom

Important Takeaways:

  • On Monday, just hours after the U.S. Supreme Court issued its landmark ruling that Trump has some presidential immunity from criminal prosecution for actions taken to overturn results of the 2020 election, Trump’s attorneys sent a letter to Judge Merchan asking to him to “set aside the jury’s verdict” in his hush money case.
  • The Manhattan district attorney’s office said Tuesday it would not oppose former President Donald Trump’s request to file a motion arguing that his hush money conviction should be tossed, a move that will almost certainly delay Trump’s sentencing, which is currently set for July 11.
  • Prosecutors asked for two weeks to respond to the defense motion.
  • “The verdicts in this case violate the presidential immunity doctrine and create grave risks of ‘an Executive Branch that cannibalizes itself,'” defense attorney Todd Blanche wrote. “After further briefing on these issues beginning on July 10, 2024, it will be manifest that the trial result cannot stand.”
  • Judge Merchan has yet to rule on Trump’s request to file his motion or make any determination about the July 11 sentencing date.

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